The persisting low-pressure area over the South-East Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andaman Sea is now expected to concentrate into a depression over the central parts of the South Bay by tomorrow (Thursday) and further intensify into a cyclone over the South-West and adjoining West-Central Bay (equidistant from the North Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts) by Saturday evening.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) maintained a track for the storm to the North-West until Sunday and then a recurvature to the North-North-East. Sea-surface temperatures on Wednesday are as high as 32 degrees Celsius over the West-Central Bay and along a narrow corridor leading to the Andhra Pradesh coast. The waters to both sides of it are cooler by only one degree Celsius, and the temperatures taper further towards the Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coasts.

North Pacific typhoon

Meanwhile, the developing storm has to contend with typhoon Vongfong along the same latitude in the North Pacific and preparing to hit the Philippines later today (Thursday). The intensification of the low-pressure area in the Bay would almost coincide with the landfall of the typhoon and its resultant weakening. A remnant of Vongfong may enter the East China Sea and re-intensify, but would likely head away to the East-North-East. So this would likely leave the field open for the Bay storm to undergo calibrated intensification.

However, the sustained North-West track could bring the storm closer to the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts, as per the wind profile outlook put out by the IMD. Some global models suspect that it may not get enough room to re-orient away to the East or North-East and could ram into the North Andhra Pradesh or South Odisha coasts. It would have committed itself too far into predestined track that Private forecaster The Weather Company, an IBM Business, sees would take it to within striking distance of the Andhra Pradesh coast (around Visakhapatnam) by Monday morning.

Along the monsoon track

Meanwhile, the IMD has warned of squally weather conditions with winds speeding to the order of 45-55 km/hr gusting to 65 km/hr over the South and Central Bay on Friday; 55-65 km/hr gusting to 75 km/hr Sunday; and 65-75 km/hr gusting to 85 km/hr on Monday over the same area. This goes to mean any landfall of the prospective cyclone would have to wait well into the next week. The IMD has not given any indication as to the likely area of landfall.

Along the track of the South-West monsoon, the Maldives Islands, the first port of call to the West-South-West, has issued a yellow alert this morning hinting at the possibility of torrential rain and thunderstorms accompanied by wind gusts of 72 km/hr from 7 am to 10 am along a stretch from the Laamu Atoll to Addu city. The monsoon enters the country by mid-May and the prevailing atmospheric and marine parameters suggest that the seasonal rains might enter its Southern atolls any time. Widespread rain with isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms is expected over the country.

Heavy rain, high winds over Lanka

Winds will be from the West-North-West at 13-19 km/hr the Northern atolls and 20-37 km/hr elsewhere, the Maldives Meteorological Service said. Winds may gust between 64-72 km/hr during showers. Seas are expected to be moderate (wave heights of 4-8 ft) becoming rough (8-13 ft) during showers in the Northern atolls and rough elsewhere. Wave surges expected during high tide times. Classical onset features demand wind direction to shift to a Westerly-South-Westerly track and cranking up of speeds.

Sri Lanka falls in the way of the monsoon flows from the Maldives areas and headed towards the Bay, but the monsoon onset here happens after that over the Bay and then Myanmar. The Sri Lankan Meteorological Department pointed to the presence of the low over the South-West Bay and adjoining South Andaman Sea, and the likely ramping up of winds over the seas in its territorial jurisdiction. It warned the fishing and naval ships operating in the deep sea areas to observe caution. It also took cognisance of the circulation within its vicinity (the Comorin area), likely amplifying the weather.

Heavy rain along West Coast

Showers or thundershowers may occur at several places in the seas around the island. Heavy showers can be expected at some places extending from Galle to Batticaloa via Hambantota. Winds will be Westerly in the seas extending from Puttalam to Potuvil via Colombo, Galle and Hambantota on the West Coast and North-Westerly in the rest of the areas around the island. Speeds may range between 20-30 km/hr and may gust to 40-50 km/hr at times in the deep seas off Galle to Hambantota via Matara (South and South-West).

Temporarily strong gusty winds of up to 70-80 km/hr in speed and rough seas can be expected during thundershowers. Heavy falls about 10 cm can be expected at some places in Southern, Central, Sabaragamuwa and Uva provinces and in Kaluthara and Ampara districts. The national forecaster advised the general public to take adequate precautions to minimise damages caused by lightning activity and localised strong winds during the pre-monsoon thundershowers.

Cloudy over Bay

The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology said in an update early in the morning that the low-pressure area over the South-East Bay and adjoining South Andaman Sea has shifted overnight to the South-East Bay. It may reach into depression strength by tomorrow (Friday) and intensify further as a cyclone the day after (Saturday). The storm may initially to the North-West and then shift track to North-North-East wards after Sunday (May 17). The forecaster said that it was cloudy over the North Bay this morning and partly cloudy to cloudy over the Andaman Sea and elsewhere over the Bay. of Bengal.

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