A third strong and active western disturbance is waiting to enter North-West India, and may perpetuate an uninterrupted run of rain, snow, thunderstorms, lightning, hail and high winds over the region and across the adjoining East and Central India as well.

Active western disturbances may take a break after this, and international models projected that next big one may reach Turkey, Syria and Jordan by March 20. It would take four to five days for it to cross Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan before entering North-West India. In between, comparably weaker disturbances may make it to North-West India.

Offspring circulation soon

Meanwhile, this (Tuesday) morning, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) traced out the latest disturbance to over Afghanistan, which is expected to induce formation of an offspring over South-West Rajasthan. Rajasthan/Haryana is a familiar region in North-West India - the other being Central/North Pakistan - for active western disturbances to lob in their offsprings, and force their influence on local weather ahead of the parent disturbance.

International weather models suspected that the offspring cyclonic circulation could intensify into a low-pressure area, just awas the case with the previous western disturbance. The IMD indicated that the circulation may mop up oodles of moisture from the Arabian Sea for three days from today, providing it enough fuel to sustain itself or intensify in strength.

Interaction with easterlies

Additionally, opposing moisture-laden easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal are expected to fan into North-West and adjoining Central India, creating an area of violent interaction, and setting off rain, thunderstorms, lightning and hail. The IMD has issued its outlook for the region as follows.

Isolated rainfall/snowfall is likely over the hills of North-West India (Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand) and the plains of North-West India today (Tuesday). Rainfall may increase in distribution and intensity to light to moderate-fairly widespread to widespread from tomorrow (Wednesday). Isolated heavy rainfall/snowfall is likely over Jammu & Kashmir on Thursday; Himachal Pradesh Thursday and Friday; and over Uttarakhand on Friday. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Punjab on Thursday, and over Haryana, Chandigarh and West Uttar Pradesh on Friday.

Thunderstorms, lightning, hail

Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning is forecast at isolated places over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and West Rajasthan today (Tuesday). Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning hail and gusty winds (speed reaching 30-40 km/hr) is likely over the hills and plains from tomorrow to Friday.

Interaction of westerly winds associated with the western disturbance and easterly winds over Central and East India will trigger moderate isolated to scattered rainfall with isolated thunderstorm, lightning/hail/gusty wind (speed reaching 30-40 km/hr) over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha from today (Tuesday) to Friday.

Impact over weather in South

The incoming active western disturbance will have its impact on local weather over parts of South India, mainly due to the dipping westerlies and moist easterlies from the Bay of Bengal. This (morning), international numerical weather models pointed to the clouding extending from Shivamogga, Bhadra Wildlife Sanctuary, Koppa, Sringeri, Horanadu, Mudigere, Sakleshpur, Kodlipet, Hassan, Subramanya, Somwarpet, Madikeri, Bylakuppe, Brahmagiri Wildlife Sanctuary, Nagahole National Park and Tiger Reserve and Bandipur Tiger Reserve and National Park (Karnataka); Mananthavady, Nenmeni, Thamarassery, Malappuram, New Amarambalam National Park (Kerala); Mudumalai National Park, Udhagamandalam, Mettupalayam, Coimbatore (Tamil Nadu);, Attapadi, Palakkad, Alathur, Parambikulam Tiger Reserve, Munnar, Thodupuzha, Idukki, Pala and Vagamon (Kerala).

The week ending March 17 may witness thundershowers over parts of Kerala while the following week (March 17 to 25) would see it extending into parts of adjoining Tamil Nadu, an outlook from the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction said. Meanwhile, IMD statistics reveal that the country as a whole has received excess showers so far during the pre-monsoon season (March 1 to 9) with deficits mainly coming in from parts of North-East India, Tamil Nadu and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands alone.

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