British Prime Minister Theresa May has warned that no Brexit at all is the most likely outcome if MPs reject her withdrawal deal on Tuesday, as she sought to persuade wavering MPs to back her in a crucial vote that could decide the future of her premiership and the direction of Brexit.

With a clear majority of Parliamentarians from across the political spectrum set to oppose her deal, the main question remaining is the scale of the defeat – with the Prime Minister making every effort to make it a close result, potentially enabling her to return with a second amended deal in the future if the EU was to agree to changes.

The deal is expected to be voted down despite a new letter from Jean Claude Juncker, the President of the European Commission, and Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, offering assurances over the temporary nature of the Irish backstop (effectively an insurance policy designed to prevent a hard border in Northern Ireland were it to come into effect). However, with the letter failing to amount to anything that would be legally binding, it is unlikely to ease the concerns of those fearful that the deal risks leaving the UK in a perpetual state of limbo where it could remain bound to EU rules without having an influence over policy, and could even threaten the integrity of the UK.

Highlighting the level of the crisis, Gareth Johnson, a government whip, resigned on Monday, insisting he could not “in all conscience” support the government’s position because it would be “detrimental to the nation’s interests.” One Labour MP – Tulip Siddiq – is to postpone her Caesarian-section operation by two days in order to be able to vote on Tuesday, the Evening Standard reported.

How the long-awaited defeat on the much delayed vote on Tuesday will be inflicted remains unclear. Much lies in the hands of John Bercow, the Speaker of the House of Commons, who will select which amendments can be voted on. Last week, Bercow provoked an outcry from many Brexiteers after allowing a vote on a controversial amendment that requires the government to return to the House within three days of any defeat with a “Plan B” option. One amendment currently in the frame on Tuesday is from Hilary Benn (the son of the former left-wing Labour leader) that would reject the Brexit deal entirely while also rejecting leaving without a deal. However, even this is controversial as some argue it would alienate some “hard” Brexiteers currently set to vote against the deal, thereby potentially reducing the margin of victory in any defeat.

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