Khalistan: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s botched trip has positive fallout for India

For the first time since Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals swept to power in 2015, his government’s re-election odds are a toss-up, according to new opinion polls.

It looks like it’s his blunder-ridden visit to India that’s largely responsible for the poll slippage.

Still, from India’s point of view, there may be an upside: for the first time since the 1980s, the Khalistan movement is under the spotlight and Canadians aren’t liking what they see.

Invite for Atwal

Trudeau’s decision to outfit himself and his family in elaborate Indian dress and their multiple wardrobe changes initially provoked good-humoured jokes at home about yet another photo-op for Canada’s undeniably dishy leader.

But the mood turned to embarrassment when news broke about would-be assassin Jaspal Atwal’s invite to two Canadian functions during Trudeau’s visit.

Then, when Trudeau tried to shift the blame for the Atwal fiasco by embracing a far-fetched conspiracy theory that Indian spooks were at fault, the reaction was stunned disbelief.

Another false step

The Toronto Star newspaper wisecracked that Trudeau’s eight-day India sojourn may be remembered as “the least successful foray into that country since the repelled Mongol invasions of the 13th century.”

Now, though, Trudeau may be paying the political price for turning what Canada billed as a relationship-building trip into one that’s sunk Delhi-Ottawa ties to a new low.

With Canadian federal elections due in 2019, a new survey by leading pollster Ipsos/Global News puts the Opposition Conservatives five points ahead of the Liberals for the first time since the last vote.

If an election were held now, the Liberals will get 33 per cent of the vote while the Conservatives will win 38 per cent, with the remainder split among other parties, the poll suggested. Other polls also put the Conservatives in the lead.

By way of comparison, public broadcaster CBC’s benchmark poll tracker placed the Liberals 5.5 points ahead of the Conservatives before the sorry saga erupted.

While Liberal MP Randeep Sarai swiftly confessed he’d sought the Atwal invitations, it was clear that although he may have lit the fire, Canadian security vetting should have stopped it turning into an inferno.

After all, Atwal, a Sikh separatist triggerman sentenced to 20 years for the attempted murder of visiting Punjab Minister Malkiat Singh Sidhu in 1986, was well-known in Liberal circles.

Atwal had been accused, but not convicted, of nearly beating to death former Liberal Cabinet Minister Ujjal Dosanjh and staunch Sikh separatist opponent, back in 1985.

(Atwal, for the record, declared on Thursday that he has nothing but “regret and remorse” for what he concedes was an “act of terror” in shooting Sidhu.)

However, unwilling to admit the blooper and let the story die a natural death, Trudeau’s office ratcheted it up. Canadian National Security Advisor Daniel Jean was wheeled out to tell reporters that Indian agents conspired to get Atwal invited to humiliate Canada over its perceived softness on Sikh separatists.

Even as opposition MPs and the media were ripping apart Jean’s theory as preposterous, Trudeau stuck to his guns and told Parliament when a security official says “something to Canadians, it’s because they know it to be true.”

Such was the ensuing flap, it eclipsed even last week’s Budget presentation with MPs at Question Time only lambasting Trudeau about how he messed up on his maiden official India visit.

The India trip is possibly the most egregious example of the poor judgement and ineptness of the so-called dream ‘Team Trudeau’.

But the list of policy and personal goof-ups has been steadily growing, costing the ‘Prince Charming’ of Canadian politics both popularity and credibility.

Back in news

From the India’s standpoint, though, there’s positive fallout from Trudeau’s visit. The Canadian media is asking tough questions about whether the government is too close to Sikh separatists and providing a haven for pro-Khalistan fundraisers, gunrunners and extremists.

It’s a subject that hasn’t been front-and-centre on the public’s radar since Canadian Sikh terrorists blew a Mumbai-bound Air India plane out of the sky in 1985, killing all 329 people aboard.

Trudeau’s address last year to a Toronto parade for ‘Khalsa Day’, which included floats glorifying Sikh militant Bhindranwale and Khalistan flags has also come in for renewed scrutiny — and it’s sharply critical.

Vote-bank politics

The bottom line, though, is that Canada’s indulgence towards Sikh separatist sympathisers is all about vote-bank politics, and successive governments — both Liberal and Conservative — have been guilty of playing that game.

“Every step taken (on Trudeau’s trip) was targeted at securing one particular ethnic vote bank in Canada,” commented The Sun newspaper.

Sikhs, while totalling 470,000 of Canada’s 36 million population, represent the largest group among Indian-origin Canadians and are concentrated in certain constituencies.

While Sikh separatism may not be a major agenda item in Punjab, it remains a live political issue among pro-Khalistan sympathisers in Canada where many Sikhs emigrated to in the turbulent 1980s.

“Khalistani sympathies… have seeped deep into the veins of our political system,” comments Dosanjh, who’s also a former premier of British Columbia, which is also home to many Sikhs.

Change in perception

Even if the Trudeau government fails to act on India’s list of nine people in Canada that New Delhi suspects of trying to revive the Sikh separatist movement in Punjab, the fact that Canadians are suddenly “woke” to Ottawa’s lax stance toward potential pro-Khalistan troublemakers is a win for India in shifting Canadian public perceptions.

“Contrast the Trudeau government’s willingness to accommodate the increasingly belligerent regime in Beijing, the world’s foremost police State, with its cavalier indifference to the security concerns of Mother India, the world’s largest democracy, and you’ll see why Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi and (Punjab) Chief Minister Amarinder Singh have been a bit worried about us lately. They have a point,” commented writer Terry Glavin in Canadian national news magazine Maclean’s .

For Trudeau, he’ll have to wait and see whether his India showboating for the Sikh community back home pays off in votes.

Right now, he may be looking at Trump’s trade war as a welcome political diversion.

All may be forgiven by voters if he’s able to wrest enduring tariff exemptions for Canada’s vital aluminium and steel industries in NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) talks.

The writer is a long-time reporter on Canadian politics.

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