A new study carried by a researcher from the University of Melbourne revealed that armed conflict activities have witnessed a surge amidst the Covid-19 pandemic.

The study added that India, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan and the Philippines all saw an escalation of civil wars because conflict parties exploited either state weakness or the lack of international attention due to the pandemic.

Tobias Ide, a Discovery Early Career Researcher Fellow from the School of Geography said in a statement: “I looked at the countries that had the most palpable records of conflict.”

“What I found was that rebel groups try to exploit situations in which governments are busy with containing the pandemic and its economic fallout. Increased activities of the Islamic State in Iran are just one example. At the same time, there is little international protest or support as each country is focussed on its own struggle with the virus,” he added.

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The study also stated that armed conflict intensity in four countries (Afghanistan, Colombia, Thailand, and Yemen) decreased between March and June, according to the study. This happened as a result of both state and rebel forces failing to get traction under the pandemic.

Ide noted: “However, there are few reasons to be enthusiastic about this development. The Taliban in Afghanistan and the ELN rebels in Colombia, for instance, reduced their attacks during the first months of the pandemic. But they also used the Covid-19 crisis to recruit new fighters among impoverished groups, and to gain public support from their own pandemic response.”

Ide’s paper, ‘Covid-19 and armed conflict’ was published in the World Development journal. The study zeroed in on nine countries that witnessed unprecedented levels of armed conflict when the pandemic began to unfold in March this year.

“Escalating armed conflicts pose significant obstacles when dealing with the pandemic as health infrastructure is destroyed and the government losses resources to respond to the virus,” said Ide.

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