The uncertainty over the direction of Brexit and an ongoing scandal over the treatment of Britons from the Commonwealth by Britain’s Home Office failed to wreak the damage that many had predicted in local elections held this week, the results of which emerged on Friday.

High expectations of the Labour Party’s performance, particularly in the London area, were not met, as the party made a number of gains but failed to take control of Conservative areas that had been touted as potentially vulnerable to upsets.

In local elections up and down the country, in which it would be hard to pick an overall winner, the most noteworthy development was, perhaps, the collapse of support for the UK Independence Party, which lost over 900 seats.

“Certainly neither of the main parties has done uniformly well or badly,” said Matt Singh, of Number Cruncher Politics. “Having said that the expectation in mid-term local elections is always that it’s the opposition party making progress, and Labour hasn’t really done that,” he added.

The first test

The results are likely to be welcomed by the Conservatives, and Prime Minister Theresa May, as the elections were overshadowed by a number of controversies over Britain’s immigration regime, during which fingers were firmly pointed at May, once the country’s Home Minister.

It is the first test of the government since the June general election last year, when rather than strengthening its parliamentary presence, the Conservatives lost their majority and are forced to rely on the support of allies in Northern Ireland, the DUP.

The government has been plagued by difficulties since that election, resulting in four cabinet ministers resigning, including Amber Rudd, who stepped down as Home Secretary on Sunday night, just days before the local elections.

Uncertainty also persists over the direction of Brexit, and in particular the nature of Britain’s customs arrangements with the EU going forward, with the cabinet split on the issue. A poll earlier this week by ICM Research showed that net confidence in the government’s handling of Brexit had fallen from minus 4 in December to minus 19.

However, the Labour party, also beset by a controversy over its strategy to deal with anti-Semitism within its ranks, failed to gain much ground. In the north London council of Barnet, the party failed to take control from the Conservatives, which increased their presence there, while in the London councils of Wandsworth and Westminster, Labour gained seats but failed to take control.

There were a number of successes, including in Trafford in Greater Manchester, where it became the largest party (though without a majority).

The results suggested that while local issues certainly came into play, national issues also played a key role. In Barnet, where Labour underperformed, the wards with high Jewish populations went particularly poorly for the party, suggesting the anti-Semitism row hit sentiment. In Richmond, in south-east London, which voted heavily in favour of remaining in the EU, the pro-Remain Liberal Democrats wrested control from the Conservatives.

“The pattern here is that [the results] do seem in totality to be driven by the same broader political trends as you see in national politics, though of course there can be local issues that dominate and that’s where you get some strange results,” says Singh.

UKIP’s vote share

UKIP, the rightwing, anti-immigrant Eurosceptic party that performed strongly in the 2014 local elections, saw its vote share collapse in line with its poor performance in the May 2017 general election. The party’s general secretary courted derision after comparing UKIP to the Black Death — the plague that wiped out millions across Britain and Europe in the 14th century.

“Think of the Black Death in the Middle Ages,” he told BBC Radio 4 on Friday. “It comes along and it causes disruption, and then it goes dormant. And that’s exactly what we're going to do. Our time isn't finished,” he insisted to the incredulity of the interviewer.

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