The US presidential election is rather long – the parties hold the primaries to elect their nominees and then the nominees square-off with each other to win the presidency. The year-long process is reaching its end now, and the results will be declared in a few hours.  

A record 100 million people -- 70 per cent of those who voted in 2016 -- have cast their votes so far. Experts believe that the total turnout could be higher than that of 2008, when Barack Obama won the presidency for the first time (61.65 per cent).

 

This surge in early voting could potentially delay the declaration of results. The votes cast on November 3 will be counted first. Each State has its own rules for counting mail-in and absentee ballots. In some States, they are counted simultaneously and in others, there is a delay. For example, California will report some results on election night, but the State accepts ballots that arrive as late as November 20.  

In Pennsylvania, these ballots will be processed only on November 3. The deadline for ballots to arrive is November 6. In the primaries held in June, the State was counting ballots even a week after the election. The deadline to stop counting is November 23, so the wait could be long. 

Normally, the provisional results will be declared on the voting day itself and the final result will confirm it. Now, it is likely that this would not happen.  

The Vox reports that 48 per cent of those who voted early are Democrats compared to 42 per cent of the Republicans. It also reports that a vast majority (60,451,666 votes) are mail-in votes and the rest (34,576,166) are in person votes. 

Counting all these votes could take a lot of time, which could delay the results, or worse, the winner could change completely. It is highly likely that US President Donald Trump leads initially and then Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, could surge in the coming weeks.

Throughout this election, Trump has repeatedly questioned the delayed counting of ballots and has claimed that it would lead to fraud. Such a scenario could only embolden this claim. 

Then there is another 'googly': Mail-in ballots could be tossed out on technical grounds, like mismatched signatures or not submitting the votes in time. 

This is a serious concern. In this year's primaries, more than 550,000 ballots were tossed out. Studies show that ballots of minorities, women and younger voters were more likely to be rejected. The NBC reports that over 1 million votes could be rejected this time around. In a close race, this will change the results entirely. 

Latest opinion polls vary a lot. In Georgia, some polls give Biden a lead of two points (Morning Consult), while others say Trump leads by 4 points (Landmark Communication). In Nevada and North Carolina, various polls give Biden a slender 2 point lead. In Florida, Morning Consult polls gives Biden a lead of 6 points, while a poll by ABC News-Washington Post puts Trump ahead by 2 points. In this scenario, get ready for long legal battles. 

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