It’s do or die for Chandrababu Naidu

Nara Chandrababu Naidu — the man who famously refused the post of Prime Minister — and his Telugu Desam Party (TDP) are on the brink. They face their biggest political challenge in the ensuing 2014 General and State Assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh.

The proposed bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh threatens to marginalise them in both contests, if they do not get their act together.

In a worst case scenario, the TDP can end up behind the Congress and Telangana Rastra Samithi (TRS) in Telangana.

It is expected to take a heavy battering in the Rayalseema areas and partly in coastal Andhra, from a rejuvenated YSR Congress (YSRC), whose mass leader, Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy is just out of jail on bail. Several surveys (polls) and political analysts point to the continuing dip in the political fortunes of Chandrababu and TDP.

Will Chandrababu Naidu be able to avert political wilderness post 2014? Will he be able to marshal his managerial acumen to stitch together alliances and remain a political force both in the State and at the Centre?

Naidu has been left behind by the protagonists of Telangana and Seemandhra. The Congress and YSR Congress could emerge as the chief beneficiaries in the former and latter regions. They have set the political agenda.

Naidu finally hit upon the idea of Telugu atma gauravam (Telugu pride) and decided to undertake a bus yatra of Seemandhra. It did not take much time for him to realise that he was no NTR to sway the people with his oratory. So, he has temporarily changed track and fallen back on his tested skills of playing backroom politics — forging alliances and playing kingmaker.

He set off to New Delhi to test the waters and went about meeting his old friends — the Left parties, Mulayam Singh, Sharad Yadav and finally Rajnath Singh of the BJP. The trip was pregnant with possibilities. Will there be a revival of a third front, will he sail with the Left parties or as a last ditch go back to the National Democratic Alliance?

Lure of the NDA

The idea of a secular Third Front did not seem to cut ice. It is no secret that regional satraps like J. Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu, Mulayam Singh in UP, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, Nitish Kumar in Bihar, Mayawati of the BSP, all nurse their own ambitions, and it would be difficult for them to come together on a single platform. Similarly, the Left today wields little influence.

Besides, Narendra Modi, the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, and Naidu share some commonalities in their poll planks, minus the former’s Hindutva image.

Both of them focus on economy, development, corruption in high places and lack of credible governance. There is, in fact, a lot in common between Modi’s Gujarat model and Naidu’s Andhra Pradesh of 1995-2004.

Attracting investments, both foreign and from NRIs, encouraging entrepreneurs, organising road shows (Naidu went global) and largescale MoUs — that was Naidu’s style. Naidu harped on how he made Hyderabad a global brand, bringing IT giants (that led to the emergence of Cyberabad) in his recent yatra and 2,000-km walk earlier in the State. But this is not to negate political differences. Naidu is supposed to have been in the forefront of ‘sack Modi’ calls, post Godhra in 2002. But that’s water under the bridge.

It would not be a big surprise if the TDP and the BJP hammer out an understanding. Modi set the ball rolling in his Hyderabad speech in August. The open support of the BJP in both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha to the TDP MPs opposing the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, and Naidu meeting Rajnath Singh, bear out this growing closeness.

A strategic carrot that the BJP seems to be holding out to Naidu is to chair the NDA.

If the NDA gets enough numbers, it means Modi is through. In a different scenario, where the need is to cobble together numbers and find an acceptable prime ministerial candidate, Naidu as NDA chairman can do the job, feel political pundits.

Ground Reality

BJP’s support to TDP in Parliament may seem curious, given that it, in fact, queered the pitch for a separate Telangana. What was its support to TDP based on? BJP said in Parliament that it was opposed to the manner in which the two states were being created.

So, the understanding seems to be that BJP’s support base in Telangana will combine with TDP’s support in coastal Andhra to pose a challenge to YSRC and Congress.

The TDP stands to lose its small percentage of Muslim supporters by going along with the BJP. However, TDP leaders reckon that the gains that it makes in Telangana will outweigh this. The TDP’s good performance in Telangana in the recent Panchayat elections gives rise to this belief.

However, these calculations can come unstuck if the TRS, Congress and MIM share the spoils in Telangana, leaving the BJP high and dry.

In Seemandhra, the YSR Congress has stolen the lead. The release of Jagan should buoy up the cadres. The Congress may do well in Telangana but is in a shambles elsewhere. It may see a split or there may be an exodus to YSRC. Even the Muslims in the region could go with the YSRC, as Rajasekhara Reddy won their hearts and earned their goodwill with the promise of four per cent reservation.

The TDP hopes to keep together the influential agriculture and business communities, while benefiting from a transfer of BJP votes in coastal Andhra. In the heyday of their alliance, the BJP won a few MP seats and filmstar Krishnamraju also became a junior minister for defence.

Thanks to NTR, the TDP swept the state on the ‘Telugu pride’ and anti-Congress card three decades ago. The baton has now passed on to more recent actors, creating an existential crisis for Naidu.

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