In a surprising turnaround this week, Turkey’s parliament voted to authorise ground military action against Islamic State (ISIS) militants. Until recently, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan was a fence sitter, condemning ISIS in public, but reluctant to do much more, despite considerable US pressure.

Now, almost overnight, everything has changed. Turkey shares a 750-mile border with Syria, and ISIS has moved within sight of the Turkish army. ISIS also occupied the 700–year-old tomb of Suleyman Shah, a descendant of the original founder of the Ottoman empire, a site located in Syria but revered by Turks. This provocation apparently goaded Erdogan — and Turkey — into taking action.

A bigger threat

Speaking to the Turkish parliament, Erdogan said air strikes alone would not defeat ISIS. “Air strikes will only delay the threat and danger. This has been the case in Iraq so far. It is inevitable that temporary solutions will cause Iraq to face such interventions every 10 years.”

For some time now, the US has been trying to coax Turkey into taking action. Until recently, Turkey pleaded a hostage situation: 46 Turkish hostages were held by ISIS. Then last month, the hostages were suddenly released, in mysterious circumstances.

Turkey was rumoured to have traded ISIS prisoners for the hostages. Erdogan himself said that “such things may be possible.” Turkey is also awash with Syrian refugees: at last count, 1.5 million of them. Some are living in refugee camps, but many get by on the streets. Syrian children begging for money are a common sight in Istanbul.

Turkey has now apparently thrown in its lot with the US-led coalition of Arab states. Many commentators have pointed out that air strikes alone are useless.

Turkey could provide the “boots on the ground” element that is sorely needed. But will it? Erdogan mentioned conditions, chiefly that Turkey would not stage ground operations without an internationally enforced security zone. But more crucially, Erdogan also said that Turkey’s operations were going to be focused on removing Syrian president Bashar- al-Assad. But the US coalition has made no such statements, and most think the US airstrikes will actually help Assad.

Ties that bind

There’s a conflict here that it doesn’t take a genius to figure out.

The general feeling is that Turkey can’t afford to take tough measures, because it’s too close to ISIS. “While the United States can bomb ISIS targets and still feel relatively safe 6,000 miles away, Turkey has to reckon with the possible local backlashes of joining the anti-ISIS military campaign.

Some fear that if Turkey gets too involved, bombs might start exploding in Turkish cities — detonated by fighters who cross the border, or even by ISIS cells within,” wrote popular commentator Mustafa Akyol, recently in the New York Times.

Istanbul is noticeably tense at the prospect of ISIS attacks, in a city that has already seen its share of brutal terrorism.

Erdogan has his own home grown problems. Media reports say as many as 1,000 Turks have joined ISIS, a small number compared to other nations, but still worrying given the creeping radicalisation of Turkey.

Meanwhile, Ankara is still being cautious, as Erdogan ponders his tough options. Clearly Turkey is going to intervene only on its own terms. With all the flip flopping recently, what those terms may be is anyone’s guess.

The writer is a freelance journalist based in Bangalore and Istanbul

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