There are moments when the world looks so combustible a single match could ignite a global conflagration. In our neck of the woods, Pakistan has a new prime minister after throwing out the old one in a drama-filled night. Sri Lanka has just halted debt repayments and warned it may default. The people are out in the streets desperately trying to eject President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the rest of his family from the government. And let’s not even talk of Afghanistan where the top leader Hebtullah Akhundzada has only held one cabinet meeting and not been spotted in public. The most powerful man in government is almost certainly Sirajuddin Haqqani, chieftain of the Haqqani group responsible for terrorist bombings and killings both in India and Afghanistan.

Throw in Russia’s bloody invasion of Ukraine and Covid-19 which could be making a small comeback just when we hoped it was on its last legs. In Delhi, positivity rates have shot up to 2.7 per cent, the highest in the last two months. Amidst all this, how do we return to the path of robust economic growth?

Can any good come from this welter of chaos, confusion and disorder? Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been quick to seize the moment and has talked about peace in his first message to Pakistan’s new prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif. From the Pakistan side, Shehbaz has raked up Kashmir in his first reply but it would be harder for him to reply with more warmth immediately after taking office.

The million-dollar question now is whether the new government will show more inclination to make peace with India? Shehbaz’s brother, Nawaz Sharif, who’s in exile in London, has always seemed keener than any other Pakistan leader on peace with India. But the real question is where Pakistan Army Chief Qamar Javed Bajwa stands on the issue.

Some good signs

There have, remarkably, been a few good signs. For a full year, there’s been no border firings. Even more encouragingly, the Pakistanis reacted in an amazingly low-key way after a Brahmos missile flew at supersonic speeds for 3.45 minutes through Pakistan. And, crucially, Pakistan made no effort at all to exploit the India-China Ladakh clashes.

What accounts for the almost muffled response? Was it kept at a low key by Bajwa or was it Imran, who behind the rhetoric, may never have been as anti-Indian as he sounded? Many Pakistan experts believe the former to be the case. “PM Modi congratulated PM Sharif within minutes of him becoming PM. This might help in picking up the thread that was lost by Nawaz’s ouster, but was silently sustained by Bajwa in backchannel talks,” says Avinash Paliwal, associate international relations professor at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies.

There’s a small chance both the Pakistan Army and the civilians have realised they need to rebuild the country’s economy — and peace is the only way forward. After all, Pakistan got exactly what it wanted in Afghanistan and that has resulted in near-starvation in the benighted country. Once again, refugees have been spilling into Pakistan. International aid is out of the question with people like Sirajuddin Haqqani in government and girls barred from attending school.

The new Pakistan government also has the difficult task of balancing its relationships simultaneously with both the US and China. It’s thought Shehbaz will be more pro-American but he’s unlikely to stray too far from “Iron Brother” China, even if the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has never turned into the transformational economic effort it was touted to be. So far, there have only been a few badly needed power plants and highways.

An optimistic way of looking at it could be that Nawaz will be a strong behind-the-scenes presence in the new government even if the army hates him. Besides that, this will be a national government of sorts with Bilawal Bhutto as the possible foreign minister and his father, Asif Zardari, as a negotiator and guiding figure in the background. Will they between them be able to forge a more peaceful subcontinent? We can only hope that together with the army they’ll be able to come out on peace manoeuvres that are matched by us.

Take a big leap to the other end of the subcontinent and Sri Lanka where protesters are pitching tents to camp through the night near President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s residence. Gotabaya hopes after dismissing the prime minister and the cabinet, he’ll be able to cling to power. But the crowds in the streets are determined to see the back of him and his family. The Rajapaksas said they were aiming to create transformational infrastructure projects (with Chinese help) that would turn Sri Lanka into a self-sufficient economic powerhouse.

Instead, they’ve built white elephants like Hambantota Port which in its first year had only a handful of ships arriving at its docks. The Chinese-built Mattala Rajapaksa airport at Hambantota, conceived as a second international airport for the country but sited 120 km from Colombo, was less of an economic drain but still an utter waste of money. India decided against buying the facility, known as “the world’s loneliest airport,” even if it might have reduced the Chinese presence in the strategic Indian Ocean area.

Looking ahead

How can India capitalise on all that’s happening in these two countries? The obvious answer is it must strengthen economic ties both with the Sri Lankans and Pakistan. IndianOil already runs petrol stations and has a strong presence across Sri Lanka. In addition, there’s the recently agreed deal under which IndianOil will lease 75 oil tanks there.

Most importantly, India must scout out projects suitable for Sri Lanka’s size (the island’s population is 22 million). Crucially, the projects should fit in with the island’s tourism and natural beauty. Colombo is a key transhipment port for India-bound cargo but in recent months the island’s economic dislocations have forced ships to sail directly to India.

Trading with Pakistan is, of course, a totally different ball game. There was a small favourable signal in February when Afghan trucks were allowed to transit through Pakistan via Attari-Wagah carrying Indian wheat. And before that, in 2021, there was talk of boosting commerce and moving back to a time when limited trade took place. But that proposal fell at the last hurdle.

The world economy isn’t likely to be booming in the near future with the Ukraine war and Covid-19. We could counter that in a small way by doing business with our neighbours, building trade with Pakistan and also helping to expand Sri Lanka’s industrial base and creating a new way forward for that country. 

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