Aggressive China, a big headache

The fighting is becoming even more brutal in Ukraine and the temperature is rising around Taiwan and in the South China Sea. Squadrons of Chinese fighters are shearing off Taiwan’s territorial space while near the Spratly Islands, an American destroyer is slicing through waters the Chinese claim as their own.

We aren’t yet a world at war but there are unpleasant belligerence levels both in Europe and Asia. There’s not the slightest sign of a peace formula to end Russia’s war against Ukraine while China is rapidly expanding its armed forces and upping its bellicose tone.

New Delhi’s efforts to counter China have been on show this week with India and the US holding the 11-day Cope India joint exercises that will have two B-1B bombers coming to this country for the first time. In April, our air force will hold exercises with France’s.

On another front, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval has just held talks with Vietnam in which the two sides talked about peace, stability, maritime safety and freedom of navigation. No names were mentioned, but there are no prizes for guessing who that’s aimed against.

How does India stand up against the powerful bully on its northern border? That question is becoming more complex. We’re buying sophisticated Israeli drones and Korean artillery pieces. The army is also playing out new battle scenarios in an age of drone-based and hi-tech warfare.

Countering China

We aren’t the only ones feeling the need to bulk up militarily to counter China. The US has been meeting with Taiwanese leaders amid intensifying worry about a future conflict with China over the island. Washington has also been opening new bases in countries like the Philippines which has had recent brushes with the People’s Liberation Army’s navy. As well, the US and the Philippines are staging their largest-ever joint military exercises.

South Korea is hesitant to talk about military cooperation against China. But India is beefing up its armed forces with South Korean weaponry like the K9 Vajra, a 155mm howitzer. India has just ordered 100 more of these big guns on top of the 100 it ordered before. Besides that, we’re looking at acquiring Korean ships and submarines.

With its eyes on China and North Korea, Japan has ditched its policy of keeping its military budget below one per cent of GDP. In January, India and Japan’s air forces held 16-day joint exercises and the nations’ aircrew even flew in each other’s aircraft.

But despite the government’s self-reliance drive, India’s imports of Chinese goods have been hitting all-time highs. Sanctions are a complex affair as the world’s been discovering. We’re buying and refining record amounts of Russian oil that’s making its way to the US and even Europe, despite Western efforts to freeze Russia out of the global economic system.

Similarly, a large number of companies attempting to beat Western moves against China are Chinese. Scores of Chinese companies making parts for solar panel companies have moved to Vietnam. In fact, cutting Beijing out of the global industrial system is way tougher than blacking out the Russians, given the world’s economic interdependence with the Chinese.

That’s illustrated by huge new deals in the wings. At one level, Elon Musk is looking at a mega-factory to make Tesla batteries in Shanghai. And, following French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to China, Airbus has agreed to a deal to sell 160 commercial aircraft. It’s also setting up a second production line in Tianjin, China.

China says it would like India to go back to business as usual but that seems unlikely without a border deal. The Chinese have also just exacerbated tensions by releasing an Arunachal Pradesh map, labelling it South Tibet, and renaming 11 places. China didn’t attend a G20 meeting in Arunachal the week earlier and both Pakistan and China have refused invitations for a Srinagar get-together.

Facing off

India, meanwhile, is still facing off against the PLA on its Himalayan borders. It’s said we got advance US intelligence about a Chinese attack on Indian soldiers late last year that enabled us to repel the invaders. But aside from that, India’s very much on its own in Ladakh and Arunachal even though we have conducted joint military exercises with the US near the Chinese border.

The question for Indian policymakers is how our Quad allies — the US, Japan and Australia — could assist us in a Himalayan skirmish. Every strategist must keep some numbers firmly in mind: China’s defence budget this year is $225 billion while ours is $72 billion. We have to play our weak hand very cleverly and figure out novel ways of deterrence.

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