Mankind has gone through three distinct turning points in its evolutionary history — discovered fire 100,000 years ago; developed language 10,000 years ago, and invented wheel 5,000 years ago — which triggered multitudes of other advances that have revolutionised human existence.

Since then, within the overall arc of human history, not much seems to have changed. Else, we wouldn’t be living like those who lived five millennia ago, with parents and pals, amidst cities, markets and governments. And, we wouldn’t fear death, share gossip, build relationships and celebrate birthdays like those in the past. Isn’t it a trivia that lot has changed without much remaining the same?

With a deep understanding of human history, tech entrepreneur and futurist Byron Reese offers a nuanced understanding of the change that is at our doorsteps, in the form of what he terms ‘the Fourth Age’. This age will unleash the power of artificial intelligence and conscious computers in our daily existence, seemingly intelligent non-humans who will act autonomously to perform tasks that will ease our lives.

There is every reason to believe that automation will bring efficient and healthy living within the reach of everybody on the planet. The prevailing technological turbulence will bring about dramatic breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and robotics in just the next 50 years, at an accelerated pace compared to what has been witnessed during the last 5,000 years.

Within the emerging world of artificial general intelligence (AGI), the development of thinking machines evokes as much hope in future as fearful dystopia. Will machines make humans redundant? Will smart automation gobble up all jobs? Will it usher permanent Great Depression?

Since it is about the change we haven’t seen yet, any discussions on the subject leads to confusion and misconception.

The confusion is further compounded when the likes of Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking, and Bill Gates propound that artificial intelligence is a fundamental risk to the existence of human civilisation, while their illustrious compatriots Mark Zuckerberg, Andrew Ng, and Pedro Domingos lend weight to the argument that human future is safe in the hands of intelligent machines.

Return of the Great Depression

Reese takes the question head-on, although it is devilishly complex because it isn’t known what jobs robots can replace; to what level business will invest in developing artificial intelligence; and how will cost of labour impact the adoption of technology?

Therefore, this is no back-of-the-envelope calculation to determine the net effect of technology on jobs. What is perhaps easy is to realise that there are just three possible scenarios — robots will take all jobs; robots will take some of the jobs; and robots will take none of the jobs.

Without doubt, introduction of technology does reduce the need for workers in particular sectors. Although the transition is often difficult, those eliminated from low-skilled jobs graduate into improving their skills to take on different jobs. However, the question is whether these numbers add up.

The bank ATMs and online trading websites are two interesting examples. It did rattle the bank tellers and the stockbrokers but over time technology has not only helped employ more people in building ATMs but the stockbrokers have exhibited their cognitive abilities too. The erstwhile low-skilled jobs have gained value through the use of computing technology.

Imitating the human brain

Although understanding the ever-expanding job market is mind-boggling, no visible relationship between the use of robots and loss of jobs has yet been established. Despite the installation of far more robots between 1993 and 2007, Germany lost just 19 per cent of its manufacturing jobs compared to a 33 per cent in the US.

The Fourth Age is about comprehending the accelerating change, and about understanding the universals of technology that drive progress. Understanding those universals will give us new insights on humanity’s unmistakable journey towards social justice and personal empowerment aimed at liberating humans, in the words of Charles Dickens, from the clutches of dehumanising jobs. The need is to gain clarity on duality of co-existence with machines.

For robots to replace humans at home and in the workplace, AGI would need to exhibit the entire range of the various types of intelligence that humans have, such as social and emotional intelligence, the ability to ponder the past and the future, as well as creativity and true originality.

While the cost of building robots is coming down, the challenge of building an AGI on the structure of the human brain has yet to show any tangible results. After spending billions of dollars, the Human Brain Project is in total disarray. Reese provides a detailed account of the current competing societal perspectives on the relation between humans and our machines, on accelerating technological change, and on the future of mankind in a world of robots and humanoids.

The core of the argument, however, is draw a distinction between monism and dualism as two dominant beliefs about the nature of reality. While for monists creating a machine with human attributes is a serious possibility, dualists fervently disagree that a silicon-based computer will ever grasp the intricacies of a carbon-based human.

Science is nowhere close to describing something like consciousness yet, but our relentless move forward will reduce us from Homo sapiens to Homo dissatisfactus . Byron Reese takes the reader into the rapidly unfolding world of artificial intelligence and robots, one that will revolutionise our physical being and our mental domain. The Fourth Age is truly upon us.

MEET THE AUTHOR

Byron Reese is the CEO and publisher of the technology research company Gigaom, and the founder of several hi-tech companies. He has spent the better part of his life exploring the interplay of technology with human history.

The reviewer is a Delhi-based researcher

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