At COP-26, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that India would achieve net zero by 2070, a declaration for the first time of becoming carbon neutral. The advanced economies of the US, Europe, and Japan had declared 2050 as the year for achieving net zero, and China by 2060. So, India’s 2070target was fair and reasonable.

Global warming must be restricted to 1.5 degrees. Time is running out. This decade is critical for the future of humanity. COP-26 has, therefore, urged countries to increase their commitments for 2030 under the Paris Agreement. For 2030, India has been truly remarkable in raising its goals. Its Paris commitments were ambitious in seeking to achieve 40 per cent of electricity generating capacity from renewables.

Prime Minister Modi declared in Glasgow that India would have renewable generating capacity of 450 GW by 2030. See this in perspective: India’s total power capacity now is around 370 GW and renewables are just over 100 GW. Renewable capacity is to rise by 350 per cent in this decade. Further, India would decarbonise energy to 50 per cent. At present over 75 per cent of energy used comes from fossil fuels — coal, oil, and gas. This share has remained steady in recent years. A reduction of the share of fossil fuels to 50 per cent by the end of this decade would be an extraordinarily rapid energy transition. Are these targets achievable is a natural question?

Solar potential

Solar capacity from less than 1 GW a decade earlier is now set to cross 50 GW. This capacity has been created by private investment competitively through smart policies. Solar power is now the cheapest source of electricity when the sun shines.

The storage cost of solar power has also been falling rapidly and recent bids of government’s SECI (Solar Electricity Corporation of India) indicate that the cost of solar power with storage is comparable, if not lower, than that from a new coal fired thermal plant. Growing demand in the future can be met from renewables as the least cost option.

As the cost of storage declines further, the commercial logic of not creating new coal capacity would only become stronger. Further, decentralised solar power generation in rural areas and on roof-tops would gain momentum. Assuming a potential of 1 MW in a village, there is a potential of 600 GW in our six lakh villages.

Reducing the share of fossil fuels to 50 per cent from over 75 per cent appears tough. Transport accounts for about half of the petroleum used in the country.

As the economy grows, transport needs would rise. Decarbonisation of transport would be essential. The Railways are moving rapidly towards full electrification. The aim is to become net zero by 2030.

With the new freight corridors, the Railways can begin to rapidly increase its market share of goods traffic. This would lead to substantial decarbonisation of transport. Electric two- and three-wheelers and cars have now become cheaper to run.

The share of EVs has, as a result, quickly risen to 9 per cent of new registrations in Delhi this year.

Public charging stations are coming up across India. Market forces on their own would achieve a rapid transition to e-mobility and decarbonisation in the coming years. This would get further accelerated as retrofitting of existing vehicles into EVs gets authorised and succeeds in the market.

India would then be able to achieve its extremely ambitious 2030 goal of decarbonising energy to 50 per cent.

If India does succeed in reducing the share of fossil fuels from over 75 per cent to 50 per cent by 2030, and it is likely to do so, then does it really need another 40 years thereafter to get the remaining 50 per cent fossil fuel share down to zero?

Simple extrapolation would imply getting to net zero within the next two decades. But there are industrial processes like steel and cement manufacturing as well as aviation where technology for managing without fossil fuels is still under development.

Fortunately, hydrogen is emerging as a substitute for fossil fuels. Airbus hopes to develop an aircraft using hydrogen by 2035. Toyota has hydrogen cars in the market. India has been smart in launching its own National Hydrogen Mission. Green hydrogen produced without using fossil fuels and is carbon neutral. The first hydrogen producing plant in India has recently begun production.

By 2025, it hopes to reduce the cost of green hydrogen to one dollar per kilogram, considered to be the inflexion point for large scale usage of hydrogen.

If India gets onto the global frontier in the large-scale use of green hydrogen and full decarbonisation of electricity in the 2030s, then it could achieve net zero in the next decade.

Doing so by 2047, the centenary of independence, would be a historic achievement, worth aspiring for.

The writer is is a Distinguished Fellow at The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), and former Secretary, Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, Government of India

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