After 18 rounds of military talks, India and China are nowhere close to resolving their high-altitude border dispute. The two armies are no longer eyeball-to-eyeball but they’ve settled in to stay through the summers and perishing winters.

Should the stand-off, which marks its third year this month, be called “the Galwan Effect”? Or was the Chinese forward movement planned long before Indian and Chinese soldiers brutally clashed with sticks and rocks and anything else that came to hand?

“I’m not optimistic about any talks. The Chinese don’t seem interested in yielding at all. This build-up is a structural shift that’s here to stay,” says Manoj Kewalramani, chairman of Takshashila Institution’s Indo-Pacific Studies Programme. “And it’s not because of anything we’re doing with the US.”

For several years, China has been getting tough with its neighbours, making muscular claims in the South China Sea and sounding increasingly bellicose. Talks between Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and his Chinese counterpart in Delhi a few days ago were described as “free and frank” which in diplomatese means just short of a shouting match.

In 2016, China reorganised the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into five mega-commands with its Western Theatre Command spread along the Indian border and Af-Pak border and parts of Central Asia. From Beijing’s standpoint, India is clearly the key challenge in this part of the world. Says Kewalramani: “The reorganisation of theatre commands to put the entire Indian border under one command was the start. Since then, there’s been a gradual advance.”

The tougher Chinese posture was again evident in 2017 at Doklam at the tri-junction where India, Bhutan and China meet. China began building a road in Doklam and India sent troops and bulldozers to raze any new constructions. After facing off for 73 days, both armies finally withdrew. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met soon afterwards but it was clear China made no friendly gestures to compensate for its aggressive moves. “Post-Doklam, there was an acceleration,” says Kewalramani.

The Galwan encounter served as the perfect excuse for China to strengthen its position along the contested border. In Galwan itself, “China has built an extensive set of installations, establishing an ecosystem to support its deployments of PLA troops. The images show expanded roads, outposts and modern weatherproof camps equipped with parking areas, solar panels and even helipads,” says a new study by London-based think-tank Chatham House titled: ‘Are China and India bound for another deadly border clash?’

More frequent clashes

The answer to that, says Jabin T Jacob, associate professor, Department of International Relations and Governance Studies, Shiv Nadar University, is almost certainly yes. “We are now into a situation when clashes will become more frequent. Maybe not to the scale of the Pakistan LoC. But both sides are readying themselves for such a situation.” Jacob points out that the Chinese have also been annoyed with India ever since we refused to have anything to do with the Belt and Road Initiative. The December clash in Arunachal Pradesh has further convinced observers China is determined to maintain the aggression levels even as it insists relations between the two countries should carry on despite the border disputes.

Then, there’s China’s model border villages or Xiaokang strategy which again was launched well before Galwan. Says Kewalramani: “China’s border villages strategy also dates back to 2017. So this has been in the works for some time.” India’s now matching Xiaokang with its plan to develop 600 ‘Vibrant Villages’. This is a sharp reversal from an earlier strategy to leave the border areas undeveloped so lack of roads and other infrastructure would prevent a large-scale Chinese offensive.

China is also talking down India internationally. At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, PLA delegates scoffed at India’s assertion it can match China. “India’s unlikely to catch up to China in the coming decades because of its weak industrial infrastructure,” said one PLA delegate.

Descending from the mountains, India faces the threat of a muscle-flexing China in the Indian Ocean too. We’ve already watched helplessly as Chinese naval vessels docked in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota. Now there are fears Myanmar may allow China to set up a surveillance post in Great Coco, only 55 km from our own Andaman and Nicobar Islands. There’ve been signs of fresh construction spotted there recently.

Modi and Xi Jinping have met on numerous occasions since 2014. They even met very soon after the Doklam crisis but the Chinese didn’t budge an inch. India’s facing a stronger enemy determined to be a giant-sized bully. Using utmost caution, India must face it down.

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