All eyes are on a changing America. The US seeks to position itself as an energy giant, which in combination with its military and technological might, will further enhance its influence in world affairs.

In Washington, where I had had occasion to meet a cross-section of senior officials, business executives, analysts and scholars, there was widespread criticism of President Barack Obama’s foreign and security policies — in sharp contrast to earlier years. The administration had not only botched up its healthcare programme, it was seen as indecisive and weak in dealing with challenges in West Asia and Afghanistan, and the provocations of a jingoistic and militaristic China.

Obama appears to be acutely aware of the mood in the country which wants an end to foreign military entanglements.

More significantly, as the US moves towards becoming a net exporter of energy, thanks to expanding production of shale gas and oil, the country’s geopolitics are set for profound changes. Using its leadership in areas of productivity and innovation, the US now appears set for increasing domination of the world economic order.

From across its eastern shores, the US is negotiating a comprehensive trade and investment partnership with its European allies. Across its western shores in the Pacific, it is negotiating a trans-pacific partnership, with Australia, Brunei, Chile, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, South Korea and Vietnam as negotiating partners. While China has informally indicated an interest in joining this partnership, the US will use its influence to ensure that China is not admitted till American political and economic pre-conditions are met.

Election assessment Naturally, there is interest in the forthcoming general election in India. The assessment appears to be that the ruling Congress Party is headed for a drubbing. Not many tears will be shed in Washington or elsewhere about this as the only questions India’s well-wishers ask are how India landed itself in this morass of corruption and whether a new and likely fractious dispensation will be able to restore India to a high growth path.

However, speaking informally, a senior US official recalled that Obama had described the US-India partnership as “one of the defining partnerships of the world”. The official noted that “every meaningful partnership between powerful nations encounters setbacks”, adding that such setbacks should be minor compared to the benefits of the relationship and the magnitude of what the two could accomplish together,

The Devyani Khobragade episode was a defining event in India-US relations. The Americans found Indians across the political spectrum united in the view that insults to India’s national dignity would not be acceptable. It is important that in future negotiations India should make it clear that it will not tolerate behaviour such as Sonia Gandhi being threatened with prosecution while undergoing medical treatment in New York or the supercilious attitude adopted towards Narendra Modi who is a constitutionally elected chief minister. We should not accept a situation where Americans believe that they can behave high-handedly towards our elected politicians because of their domestic lobbies. There should be no ambiguity that on such issues India will firmly adhere to a policy of strict reciprocity.

The Obama administration has messed up its relations with President Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan, dealing with him in a manner that showed scant regard for his position. By its actions, the US has clearly given the impression that despite its protestations it was clandestinely dealing with the Taliban. While the US-Afghanistan strategic partnership speaks of joint determination in eliminating the “Al Qaeda and its affiliates”, the US now speaks only of eliminating the Al Qaeda and not its affiliates such as the Taliban, the Islamic Movement of Afghanistan, the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammed.

The Afghan question There are concerns in Afghanistan that the US, which needs Pakistan’s assistance for withdrawing its military deployment from Afghanistan, will seek to appease the Pakistanis by giving them a disturbingly important role in determining the future dispensation in Afghanistan and the role of the Taliban in it.

While there is clearly a congruence of interests in working with the US, Japan and others in the face of growing Chinese military assertiveness, New Delhi and Tokyo cannot ignore the reality that there have been many flip-flops and inconsistencies in the Obama administration’s approach to China. Moreover, the US is becoming increasingly strident in its economic relations with India on issues ranging from sanctions on pharmaceuticals and civil aviation facilities, while demanding changes in India’s policies on solar panels and equipment and placing restrictions on the movement of IT personnel.

Up to India Despite these challenges, India cannot ignore the reality that the US is the pre-eminent power in the world. It will remain so primarily because its innovative and technological strengths are going to be reinforced by energy surpluses, together with the energy potential of neighbours such as Canada, Mexico and Argentina. It will also remain the foremost power in the manufacture of high-tech equipment, particularly in Defence and aerospace.

It is for India to fashion industrial policies to leverage its strengths and potential to secure high levels of investment and partnership in crucial high-tech industries. I was advised in Washington that contracts currently secured with US companies will enable us to import 5.8 million metric tons per annum of shale gas from the US annually from 1917. According to oil industry sources these contracts alone will provide us more gas than we could obtain from the controversial Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline.

But, for all this to fructify, the new dispensation in New Delhi will have to replace economic populism and accompanying fiscal irresponsibility with a quest for accelerated growth.

(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan)

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