Making the right moves in West Asia

Having set the contours of an ‘Act East’ policy over the past year, there are indications that the Modi government realises that it cannot afford to ignore developments beyond its western borders with Pakistan and Afghanistan. After an initial thrust to insulate relations with Israel from the traditional ‘compulsions of coalition politics’, there now appears to be a growing realisation of the need to put on an even keel our relations with the Islamic world, primarily in the Persian Gulf.

While stressing the need for Israel to live within secure and recognised frontiers, we cannot overlook the importance of reiterating our support for the establishment of a viable Palestinian state, living at peace with Israel.

Ever since the American invasion of Iraq and the crude western military intervention in Libya, the Islamic world has been in turmoil. There is every possibility of national borders mandated after World War 1, following the defeat of the Ottoman Empire, being changed. Within the next few years, the state structures in Iraq, Libya and Syria could well be transformed.

Moreover, the Iran-US nuclear deal has shaken the Arab world. Iran faced years of crippling western and UN sanctions because of what was evidently a nuclear weapons programme which commenced in the 1990s, with the help of the redoubtable AQ Khan. It included facilities for uranium enrichment, and plutonium production and reprocessing.

As global sanctions started to bite and its oil and gas production and exports fell, Iran’s economy started to `crumble.

These developments pleased Iran’s Sunni Arab rivals. They had reason to be nervous about Iran’s growing clout, despite sanctions, especially as Shia-dominated Iraq, with its immense oil and gas potential, was growing closer to its Shia brethren in Iran, with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard reinforcing the Iraqi army against the dreaded ISIS. These tensions have been exacerbated by the conflicts in Syria and Yemen, where the Saudis are determined to end Shia/Iranian influence. What is also raising concern in Riyadh is the growing influence of ISIS across the country; there have been widespread arrests of suspected ISIS supporters and attacks by ISIS on Shia mosques.

Politics makes strange bedfellows. The strongest opposition to the termination of sanctions against Iran has been from Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Arabia’s King Salman. There have long been reports of clandestine contacts between the Saudis and Israelis. These contacts are becoming more open. Around two months ago, senior officials from Saudi Arabia and Israel met in Lucknow. Shia leaders, intellectuals and teachers from a Shia madrassa in Lucknow hosted them.

Quite obviously, South Block was not unaware of what was happening. The Lucknow Shias are reported to have expressed concern about Wahhabi extremism, while both the Israelis and Saudis expressed happiness over the meetings. New Delhi appears to have positioned itself well as a country unaffected by sectarian tensions.

Prime Minister Modi informed Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani in Ufa that he looks forward to visiting his country. There are indications that he will also visit Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Why is it important that he visits these countries? India is one of the few countries across its extended neighbourhood to enjoy cordial relations with all three contesting parties — Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel. There are an estimated 1.8 million Indians in Saudi Arabia who remit nearly $9 billion annually.

Saudi Arabia is our largest supplier of oil, accounting for around 20 per cent of our imports. Around 1.8 million Indians live in the UAE; they remit around $16 billion annually. A little known fact is that the UAE is our second largest export market in the world, after the US, with our exports estimated around $37 billion annually. Nearly 7.5 million Indians live in the Gulf Arab countries, with living conditions having improved steadily for our workers.

While Israel is now a crucial partner in our defence acquisition and defence production sectors, its archrival Iran, whose provocative statements have naturally raised concerns in Tel Aviv, is also a country with which we share strategic interests. Our economic interaction with Iran, including our oil imports, have declined in recent years, and major exports of finished petroleum products amounting to around $1 billion annually, have ended because of growing international sanctions on Iran. These sanctions also jeopardised prospects of moving ahead and implementing projects for oil and gas exploration by our oil companies.

Those who are starry-eyed about economic opportunities in post-sanctions Iran should, however, realise that there has been a history of Iran backing off from deals, which appeared to be at an advanced stage. Culturally, the Iranians look up to western countries and tend to be dismissive of Asian partners, though Japan and China will be exceptions.

India would do well to remember this reality. India, in turn, should increasingly link oil and gas imports from Iran to investment opportunities that Iran provides Indian companies.

Given the regional security scenario, an undersea gas pipeline between India and Iran would be preferable to a pipeline through politically volatile Pakistan.

Moreover, while we have cooperated closely with Iran, which shared our aversion to Taliban rule in Afghanistan, one has to wait and see how Iran reacts to emerging developments in Afghanistan. Iran will remain a crucial partner for our access to Afghanistan, Central Asia and the Caspian Sea, through Chahbahar and Bandar Abbas. It serves as a formidable barrier to the eastward penetration of ISIS.

The emerging strategic power play in our western neighbourhood will involve a dominant US, no longer dependent on Arab oil, but with a powerful military presence in the region.

Washington will endeavour to benefit from Arab-Persian civilisational and sectarian rivalries, and influence our role by playing its Pakistan card. China will do likewise. We will have to navigate imaginatively in this new geostrategic environment.

The writer is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan

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