Now, Modi polarises his own party

The writing was on the wall. Ever since he conclusively won the Gujarat elections last year, there was a growing clamour within the BJP and the young, middle-class urban Indians that Narendra Modi should be India’s next prime minister.

Call it a carefully crafted and cultivated image of a strongman, a doer who stands no nonsense and has taken Gujarat on the path of development; call it smart (social) media management; or simply the disappointment and desperation of a nation floundering on all parameters — economic, cultural, social and moral. A bit of all this came together to form the perception of Modi as the only saviour of India.

As it became clear that the biggest hurdle in Modi’s race to the top was his own party, the Gujarat strongman demurred and said in private conversations that other senior colleagues had just aspirations for the post.

The Goa tamasha

But, clearly, the cadres of the BJP, impatient to see the party back in power after a vanavas of 10 years, were in no mood to wait. So, at the BJP’s national executive meet in Goa, Advani sulked and stood his ground by not turning up. The rest of Modi’s detractors/competitors swallowed the bitter pill and clapped and cheered as BJP chief Rajnath Singh anointed him chairman of the BJP’s poll panel.

What happened at Goa is history; what barbs and darts the Congress throws the BJP’s way are ill-disguised expressions of nervousness at the formidable rival they have in Modi. Also, there is discomfiture within the Congress that while the BJP is inching towards naming Modi as its prime ministerial candidate, their resident prince, Rahul Gandhi, is yet to decide whether or not to take a sip from the vish ka pyala (the cup of poison called power that Mama Sonia had advised him against).

But once the cheers and firecrackers fade into the background, and it is time to deliver on the massive hope that not only the BJP, but the entire Sangh Parivar has placed on Modi, it will become clear what a calculated risk the Parivar has taken in anointing Modi. It was the RSS which had to give the final push.

In the good old days, it was always a race between A. B. Vajpayee and Advani and the more affable and acceptable Vajpayee always won. Advani, the architect of various rath yatras and, hence, the public face of hardened Hindutva, had to take a backseat because allies were required to run a coalition government.

Modi’s challenge

Once again, in 2014, it will be the same challenge. The Akalis have welcomed Modi’s anointment and the Shiv Sena has fallen in line, even though it’s no secret that it was Sushma Swaraj who was very close to Bal Thackeray, and the Sena would have liked to see her, and not Modi, as the NDA’s prime ministerial aspirant.

But what about the former allies? Biju Janata Dal’s Naveen Patnaik, who left the NDA before the last Lok Sabha polls, is in no mood to return. AIADMK’s J. Jayalalithaa is considered the closest to Modi, but it is unlikely she will come on board as BJP’s pre-poll ally.

She is not a constituent of the NDA; a pre-poll alliance with the BJP means parting with at least a couple of seats which the saffron party might not win.

The tragedy of the two national parties — both the Congress and the BJP — is that neither counts for much without one of the two Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu.

The BJP’s position and support base in Tamil Nadu is worse than that of the Congress. And this holds true for it in the entire South. Karnataka, the only State in its kitty, has been lost to the Congress; in both Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, the BJP has not counted for much.

And the politically-astute Jayalalithaa is going to keep her options open in case of a hung Parliament. If she manages to get even 30 seats, she will be a strong contender for the PM’s post in a Third Front government.

The missing numbers

Even the most optimistic within the BJP say that with Modi at its helm, the party will be able to win 200 seats at best.

But where will these seats come from, is the moot question. Forget the South, the BJP’s plight is the sorriest in India’s biggest State — Uttar Pradesh — where it is vying with the Congress to be the third player.

While in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Rajasthan it will do well, in other large States such as West Bengal and Odisha, it doesn’t count for much. And the exit of the JD(U), which has been dithering for a while over Modi’s ascendancy in the party, will be quickened by the bombshell Advani dropped by resigning from all top BJP posts — the national executive, parliamentary board and the election committee which Modi will now head.

In his letter to party chief Rajnath Singh, an anguished and angry Advani targeted Modi by mentioning “leaders with personal agenda”, and said he couldn’t “reconcile either with the current functioning of the party, or the direction in which it is going. I no longer have the feeling that this is the same idealistic party created by Mookerji, Deen Dayalji, Nanaji and Vajpayeeji whose sole concern was the country, and its people.”

Modi’s polarising power

“Shocked” by this development, JD(U) chief Sharad Yadav said, with the architects of the NDA — Vajpayee and Advani — no longer there, his party would take a “decision soon”. Of course, the top brass of the BJP will try to placate Advani.

But this is clearly the first example of the polarising side of Modi. If he can do this to his own party, sending his one-time mentor into such a severe sulk, imagine the shivers his elevation within the BJP will send down the collective spine of Indian Muslims. Gujarat’s Muslims might have made their peace with Modi — for economic reasons, out of fear or sheer exhaustion. But most Muslims in the rest of India still look at him with a question mark, if not suspicion.

They too want a better India… an India that is devoid of corruption and scams, indecision and lacklustre governance.

Vajpayee could gain the trust of a good segment of Indian Muslims during the NDA rule. Modi is often compared to Vajpayee, but will he be able to do the same is the moot question.

If he fails to do so, and sends the Muslim vote scurrying back to the Congress, the discredited party might yet have the last laugh in 2014.

Responses to rasheeda.bhagat@thehindu.co.in and blfeedback@thehindu.co.in

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