Last weekend, Britain’s Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson made a hasty trip to Washington DC, during which time he made an appearance on Fox & Friends — known to be the US President’s favoured TV show — to appeal to Donald Trump not to throw “the baby out with the bath water”. In other words, he was telling Trump not to completely junk the nuclear deal with Iran and instead work with the US’ European allies to find solutions to what he described as flaws in the existing deal (including the sunset clause that allows nuclear enrichment post 2025).

“Plan B does not seem, to me, to be particularly well developed at this stage,” he said in an uncharacteristic, diplomatically worded interview.

However tactful, his remarks marked a sharp break with the mollifying tone that Britain had by and large hitherto adopted when it came to controversial actions by the US President. So far, whether it has been Trump’s re-tweeting of messages from a far right British group to his sharp criticisms of the NHS, the British government’s approach has been to underplay the differences between the countries, insisting Trump was the “democratically elected head of our most important ally.”

Johnson was far from the only senior European politician to seek to influence the US on the issue: French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel both visited Washington DC last month to emphasise their eagerness to work through US concerns around the existing agreement rather than rejecting it outright.

The US decision to walk away from the nuclear agreement — well ahead of a May 12 deadline — represents perhaps the biggest challenge to transatlantic relations — with both Britain and the wider European Union, since Trump took office. In a joint statement earlier this week the leaders of Britain, France and Germany emphasised their continuing commitment to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and expressed “regret and concern” at the US action.

Strong ties with Iran

Europe has long had strong ties with Iran: until about a decade ago when the current sanctions regime was introduced (between 2006 and 2010) Europe had been Iran’s largest trading partner, though the role was swiftly overtaken by China and the UAE which each account for just under a quarter of its trade.

The EU currently accounts for just around 6 per cent of Iran’s trade — focussed on machinery, transport equipment, and manufactured goods from Europe, and fuels and food from Iran.

Trade and investment had begun to recover swiftly since the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action signed by Iran, Britain, France, China, Russia, Germany, the US — and the EU itself.

In 2016 all EU economic and financial sanctions against Iran were lifted, though those related to arms, missiles technology and certain nuclear-related activities remained in place.

European firms have entered into investments in Iran — some even following the election of US Donald Trump, who during the course of his campaign had made repeated pledges to scrap the deal (in a speech in March 2016 he announced that dismantling the “disastrous” deal would be his “Number One Priority.”)

Total, the French energy giant was confident enough to sign a $1 billion deal to invest into the first phase of the South Pars gas field with the China National Petroleum Corporation and Iran’s Petropars.

French carmaker Renualt also last year agreed to increase production of cars via a joint venture at Saveh, in Iran. Siemens, Royal Dutch Shell, Airbus, and British retailer Debenhams are just a few others with stakes in the country.

European countries are currently scrambling to save the deal in some form with Iran. Iran had indicated Europe had “limited opportunity” to preserve the nuclear deal and clarify its position and intentions, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told Macron during a phone call, according to a report by the Iranian Students News Agency.

However, the Iran announcement will inevitably force European countries to reassess their approach to the US administration.

Most had sought to adopt an accommodating stance towards the US administration — Macron in fact had come to be known in some circles as the Trump Whisperer for his apparent ability to influence the US President, by on the one hand having a warm personal relationship with him, while at the same time being openly critical of some of his policies (including his most recent trip during which he made a speech in Congress criticising the US approach on everything from Iran to the environment, and the administration’s isolationist approach).

Reactions to the chemical attack in Syria and the attack on the former spy in Britain had appeared to suggest a united foreign policy between Europe and the US.

Following the Skripal poisoning, the US joined Germany, France and Britain in condemning what they described as the first offensive use of a nerve agent in Europe since the Second World War and pointed the finger at Russia.

The exemptions accorded to Europe — temporarily at least — from the US global tariffs on aluminium and steel products also appeared to suggest the European strategy of accommodation was working. The latest developments would suggest differently.

No special treatment

In the aftermath of the Iran announcement, hopes for any special treatment for EU countries appeared to be cut short. “As @realDonaldTrump said, US sanctions will target critical sectors of Iran’s economy. German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately,” tweeted Richard Grenell, the new US Ambassador to Germany, in remarks that swiftly courted criticism and outrage for their brusque, hectoring tone.

So far Europe has presented a united front: whether this remains the case is yet to be seen. Britain has long made plain its eagerness to maintain strong ties with the US, with senior members of the government repeatedly touting a comprehensive trade deal with the US as one of the great deals that a post-Brexit Britain would be able to secure.

Trump has other allies in Europe too, particularly in Hungary and Poland whose populist leaders have made plain their eagerness to forge ties with the US.

While Hungary’s foreign minister has spoken of his support for the EU stand on the need to salvage the Iran deal to the extent possible, the complexities and differences that have long lain at the heart of the European project are likely to be tested in the coming weeks.

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