High hopes are being pinned on the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting that takes place in London next week, and the preceding business forum organised by the Commonwealth Enterprise and Investment Council (CWEIC), which will bring business leaders and policy-makers together to look specifically at the opportunities for growing trade an investment within the 53-member community, representing almost 2.4 billion people across the world.

While the summit is held once every two years, this will be the first one in London for over a decade (it had been due to be held on the Pacific Island of Vanutu last year but was shifted and postponed because of cyclone damage), and particularly with Brexit impending, Britain has touted its desire to look beyond Europe’s shores, giving the event an added importance from the host’s perspective.

The British impetus has also coincided with renewed interest from other nations — Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be the first Indian leader to attend the summit since 2009, while on a recent visit to London Suresh Prabhu highlighted India’s particular interest in adopting a “leadership” role in the organisation going forward.

In addition, for the first time since 1952, the issue of succession for the position of head of the Commonwealth will arise: the 91-year-old Queen took over from her father but her designated successor must be chosen collectively by heads of Commonwealth governments.

The “towards a common future” summit is set to focus on opportunities to increase cooperation on a number of specific areas, including sustainability and climate change; democracy, human rights and sustainable development; security and terrorism; and trade and investment.

From the Indian perspective, the Commonwealth offers a number of specific opportunities: while it has strong ties with the larger individual members — from Canada to Australia — the Commonwealth offers a forum for it to reach out to smaller island nation states in a way few other forums can.

Costs of trade

Research conducted at the time of the previous Commonwealth summit in 2015 suggested a “Commonwealth advantage” which put the bilateral costs of trade between member-states 19 per cent below what they were between non-members. For India and other states, the organisation would also offer yet another counterpoint to China particularly as it attempts to build its ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative. It also comes at a time when appetite for free trade globally is threatened, particularly as a result of posturing by the United States (as it is, the Commonwealth’s target of $1 trillion trade between member-states by 2020 is set to be pushed down to $700 billion from $525 billion in 2015 because of global economic forces).

The Commonwealth summit is expected to be an opportunity for member-states to emphasise their support for the existing multi-lateral trading arrangements, including implementation of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement (which entered force last year).

However, the success of the summit and the Commonwealth going forward will partly rest on the willingness of the host nation, Britain, to rethink its relationship to the organisation. In Britain, discussion of the revival of the Commonwealth has at points had distinctly colonial overtones: many of those pushing it are those on the right who favour a return to Britain the “great trading nation”. Last year, The Times reported on efforts by Britain to build relations with African Commonwealth nations that was dubbed “Empire 2.0” by disparaging officials, suggesting that there was some recognition of that mindset within the civil service at least.

Writing in The Telegraph in 2002, current Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson spoke derisively of the community he now lauds: “it is said that the Queen has come to love the Commonwealth partly, because it supplies her with regular cheering crowds of flag-waving piccaninnies,” wrote Johnson (who issued a half-hearted apology for the remarks when he was running for mayor in 2008, insisting they were taken out of context).

Britain’s nostalgic attitude towards its former colonies is deeply out of step with what is happening across those countries — while India was one of the first to part ways with the monarchy, other states are pushing to become republics: in Australia a referendum on the question is pretty much inevitable, while New Zealand premier Jacinda Ardern has made clear her Republican instincts.

Yet the Royal family’s ongoing leadership of the Commonwealth, in some form of another, is treated almost as a given in Britain.

Look ahead

There are also questions over the future direction of the organisation — including the willingness of Britain to share more widely the administrative responsibility for the organisation’s work across member-states.

However, it is noteworthy, while Britain has welcomed — and indeed made a big deal — of India’s active engagement with the community, it has done little to publicly acknowledge and accept India’s — or any other nation’s — ambitions for an active leadership role and greater devolution within the organisation. Also, immigration remains the elephant in the living room. It is all very well to laud common bonds and history when the movement of people is left out of the equation. In Britain at least, a toughening immigration regime has had huge impact on migrants from Commonwealth nations: earlier this week Commonwealth high commissioners from across the Caribbean demanded that Britain act speedily to rectify a growing inhospitable environment faced by the ‘Windrush’ generation — Caribbean immigrants who came to Britain between 1948 and 1973, and because of uncertainty around their documentation have been denied access to key services and threatened with deportation.

This year, a campaign by South Asians who have been resident in the UK for many years has highlighted what they believe are growing efforts to wrongly deny their right to remain in the country, by misusing rules designed to prevent those considered undesirable from settling in the country. Yet, immigration appears to have been given little role in either CHOGM or the preceding Business Forum, despite the clear priority accorded to it by India and other nations. India’s high commissioner to London and others have repeatedly made clear the importance of mobility when it comes to growing trade.

There is little doubt that the Commonwealth has the potential to offer something to many of its member-states — but to truly leap onto the global stage it will have to offer something refreshing and radical. Britain in particular will have to make active efforts to demonstrate its recognition that times have moved on and it is truly a partnership of equal nations. This will take far more than harking back to the Commonwealth’s commonalities around history, language, and legal systems.

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