Britain after May

Theresa May, who’s finally saying goodbye to 10 Downing Street, inherited a poisoned chalice that came with being Britain’s prime minister in the wake of the Brexit referendum. She had the impossible task, bequeathed by predecessor David Cameron, of getting Britain out of the EU with minimal economic and political damage. Last week, she tearfully accepted she couldn’t unite her party behind her moves. But it was long clear she wasn’t up to the job. She was an inflexible negotiator despite a weak hand, and her obdurate tactics exasperated her EU counterparts. She was secretive and stubbornly dug in her always fashionably heeled shoes in insisting Britons voted for Brexit and her mission was to deliver it, even when Parliament thrice rejected the Withdrawal Agreement she’d negotiated, and polls suggested ‘Leavers’ were changing their minds and wanted to remain in Europe.

Now, Britain’s well into overtime granted by Brussels on Westminster’s own March 30 deadline for quitting the EU. By the time she resigned, though, May, and many Tory moderates recognised Britain must accept at least a customs union with the EU. The fact is there’s no other way to tackle the intractable Irish Backstop issue. The 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which brought peace to Northern Ireland, mandated open borders between the Irish Republic and Britain’s province. But if Britain leaves the EU without a customs union there’d need to be hard border controls. And on the economic front, no customs deal with the EU, Britain’s largest trading partner, would be economically ruinous as already evidenced by the stampede of companies shifting headquarters to Europe.

What happens next? The EU’s said Britain now has till October 30 to figure out a workable way of leaving the EU. But it’s increasingly looking like no solution will emerge by then. First there‘ll be a bitterly divisive Conservative leadership contest only expected to wrap up by mid-to-end July. Then Parliament has a long recess. Boris Johnson, who’s emerged as the leadership frontrunner, has declared Britain will leave the EU on October 30 with or without a deal. Johnson is the bookies favourite to win although he’s famously inconsistent. There’s already a ‘stop Johnson movement’ among moderate Tories. In Johnson’s favour is the argument only he can muster the popular appeal to stop the Brexit Party’s Nigel Farage. With the Tories trailing in opinion polls along with the main opposition Labour under far-left leader Jeremy Corbyn who’s also pro-Brexit, the centrist Liberal Democrats who support remaining in Europe are hoping their fortunes will resurge. In the midst of this, Europe’s ultra-right parties suddenly see Britain as being ripe for a right-wing takeover. In Victorian times, the Corn Laws, which were also about trade with Europe, were the cause of the greatest upheaval in British politics. Now it looks as if history might be about to repeat itself with equally profound consequences.

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