Centre does not hold

“A spectre is haunting Europe” was the famous opening line of The Communist Manifesto . Today, it’s not the fear of Communism hanging like a shadow over Europe but the worry about extreme right-wing bordering on fascist parties. They’ve edged into power in countries from Italy and Austria to Poland and made electoral gains even in Sweden, famed for its enlightened welfare-state policies. And it isn’t just Europe where the far-right’s advancing. Brazil’s new president Jair Bolsonaro was once a fringe figure who praised the country’s former military dictatorships and made incendiary statements about women and homosexuals. Now he’s cruised to democratically elected power. One man who immediately tweeted support for Bolsonaro was US President Donald Trump, himself the ultimate outsider voted into office who’s constantly railing against immigrants, the courts and “fake” media and turned his back on US foreign policies entrenched since World War II. How well Trump’s right-wing populist policies are going down well with average Americans will be evident during the crucial Congressional midterm elections next Tuesday. If voters give the Republicans the thumbs-up, that’ll indicate they’re ready for more of Trump’s dog-whistle politics.

Voters around the world have been breaking with mainstream views that have dominated political thinking for more than 70 years. In many countries, feelings of betrayal by governing elites, perceptions of threats to national culture and identity, and fears of disintegrating law-and-order are fuelling views that only a strongman or woman can put the situation right. Then, both in Europe and the US, there’s fear of illegal migrants crossing borders in greater numbers because of unrest, civil war or economic misery. Germany's generous policies to migrants — more than a million have entered the country since 2015 — may be the key factor behind the rise of the extreme right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD), which stated police should shoot people trying to cross the border illegally. Many Germans, with memories of Nazism and the Holocaust, are particularly anguished to watch the far-right’s rise. But it isn’t just fear of immigrants driving the right’s ascent. The tech revolution has brought prosperity for a few and uncertainty and insecurity about jobs for a large number, leading to a general dissatisfaction with mainstream politics.

Is Trump, who admitted this week he doesn’t always tell the truth (no surprises there), the grand ringmaster of a lasting shift to the right? Extreme positions can always be trumpeted more loudly by demagogic leaders than moderate mainstream views. On the other hand, the liberalism that’s held sway for a large chunk of the 20th century also is a powerful force. But it must gather with fresh resolve to fight vengeful views, or the centre will not hold.

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