Dangerous moves

US President Donald Trump’s stepped back from the brink of a shooting war with Iran when he said with his usual bluster that weapons were “cocked and loaded” to fire against Iran. The world can only breathe a sigh of relief Trump refused to proceed with a military strike despite being reportedly egged on by hard-line advisors like National Security Advisor John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to attack in retaliation for Iran’s US drone downing. Such an action would have had potentially devastating consequences for a region already wracked by wars and rivalries that have reached a new intensity in recent years. It would also have plunged the global economy into turmoil almost instantly.

Trump, following his familiar bad cop, good cop, routine now is extending an olive branch to Iran, saying on the weekend, “Let’s make Iran great again” and offering to “start all over” with nuclear negotiations. He’s even thanked Tehran for not downing a US military plane with dozens of personnel aboard. Trump’s sworn to bring US troops home from conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, and is apparently uneasy about opening a new theatre of conflict and the prospect of retaliation against US targets across the troubled region. Still, while Trump’s retreated from an imminent confrontation with Iran, the risk of conflict is still very much alive. Iran, enraged by US sanctions that have tightened the noose around its economy and which Trump’s shown no sign of lifting, has hinted that it could easily launch missile attacks on oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz through which almost a fifth of the world’s oil supplies flow. The Iranian armed forces are said to have built up a formidable arsenal of missiles that could be used to attack shipping from long distances. The US, which has discovered its own fresh oil reserves, doesn’t depend on Middle East oil. Even so, oil prices could turn skittish and yet again rock India’s economy. Fears of a skirmish have triggered chaos in the aviation sector, with flights from India to the US and Europe avoiding Iranian space. A US war with Iran could put India in a delicate position. Already, there’s deep uncertainty around the future of Chabahar port being developed with the Iranians that would give India a new route into Afghanistan and Central Asia.

The Middle East’s been in disarray almost continuously since the first shots were fired in the 1980 Iran-Iraq war. At the heart of the region’s troubles is the intense rivalry between the Saudis and the Iranians. In the middle are the Israelis who’ve sided with the Saudis. The Iranians have warned its stock of uranium is about to exceed limits set by the 2015 nuclear deal. If the Iranians develop their own nuclear weapons, the Saudis would do their best to follow suit. This means there’s no room for any complacency about the region, despite easing of the immediate Iran crisis.

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