Throughout India’s history, there have been years when the monsoon has been good, and years when it has not. This year is likely to be one of the worse ones, with the Indian Meteorological Department revising its rainfall forecast to “deficient”. Although the IMD’s early forecast, made in April, has erred often, its later forecasts, made in June and revised in July, have been getting far more accurate over the years (last year, its June forecast was skewed only for the North-West region), which means the country is looking at a very real possibility of a second successive drought year. Are we prepared for it? The Centre says it is. Union Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh has said his ministry has prepared detailed contingency plans for 580 districts and that there are adequate buffer stocks of foodgrain to meet any shortage. However, the response is primarily geared towards mitigating the impact on agricultural output. If one uses agricultural output and inflation as yardsticks, one could even argue that these measures are successful. Last year, despite a drought, and despite the fact that the key agrarian states of Punjab and Haryana had the worst monsoon in half-a-century, agricultural output actually grew, albeit a marginal 0.2 per cent. Food inflation, too, was just 5.44 per cent, compared to the over 15 per cent food inflation witnessed in the previous bad drought year of 2009-10, when rainfall was only 77 per cent of normal. This was because high-output, commercial agricultural states like UP, Punjab and Haryana no longer depend on the monsoon. While a second dry year might stretch even their irrigation ecosystem, the distress of the poorer and marginal farmers in the rainfed areas of the States is likely to get acute.

The contours of the economy have changed substantially, both in rural and urban areas, which requires a new kind of policy response aimed at safeguarding livelihoods, not just crops. Despite the fact that agricultural output was not impacted, last year’s drought worsened agrarian distress, which was rendered acute by the unseasonal rains. City-dwellers have had to cope with sudden spikes in vegetable, dairy and animal protein prices, and a sustained surge in pulses and edible oil prices, which strain their budgets more than an increase in basic grain prices.

This calls for a more rounded response, from ensuring adequate credit flow, alternative crop plans and livelihood sustenance for small farmers and landless labour in rural areas, to support for the dairy and animal husbandry sectors, to drinking water management in both rural and urban areas. The supply side has to be managed to minimise impact on urban consumers and food imports need to be handled deftly. Moreover, with five drought years since 2000 and a sixth in the offing, it is time we consider deficient rain as the new normal — and plan accordingly.

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