Disquieting development

The judgment was widely expected but it has still thrown Pakistan’s politics into disarray. The Supreme Court banned Pakistan’s Nawaz Sharif from sitting in the National Assembly over corruption allegations, a ruling that meant he couldn’t continue as prime minister. For some time, it’s been clear the ‘Establishment,’ the codeword for the army and other powerful forces, wanted Sharif out, ideally with the rest of his family. But Sharif, who’s now been ousted from power three times, is a political Houdini and the great question hanging over Pakistan is whether he can eventually make a comeback. Nobody’s writing him off just yet.

Sharif was given his marching orders on grounds he was director of a Dubai-based company run by his son and was entitled to claim a total of 10,000 dirhams. In vain, Sharif argued that he’d never taken payment. But the court held he should have declared it among his assets, falling back on Pakistan’s constitution which sweepingly states a member of parliament should be “truthful” and “righteous”. Inevitably, observers have noted these passages could be used against every National Assembly member. The view in some political quarters in Pakistan that the ruling was “a decision in search of a reason” was reinforced by the fact that charges against Sharif from the ‘Panama-gate’ papers have not been fully investigated, let alone decided in a trial. But if there was any lingering doubt about the way the wind blew, it was erased with the April formation of the Joint Investigating Tribunal which drew one of its members from the ISI and another from military intelligence, both unlikely to favour Sharif.

While it’s certainly clear someone wanted Sharif out, nobody seems exactly sure why. Sharif began his career as an army favourite who could replace the Bhuttos. But he fell out quickly with his military mentors and last time was forced out in an army coup. Some speculate his opponents didn’t want him in power in the run-up to the 2018 elections. The India factor is key as well. Sections of the Pakistan army believe Sharif was determined to make peace with India or at least smooth tensions. Interestingly, in recent months, Sharif made no comment on the Kulbhushan Jadhav spy case. There was also Sajjan Jindal’s headline-making short trip to Murree and the hiring of two Indian engineers to do work at a Sharif family factory. And, of course, there was the Modi visit to Lahore that’s said to have upset the Pakistan army, which has long suspected Sharif's soft line on India and may have decided he might make unacceptable peace moves. The bottom line for India, though, is that the man who was most favourable to peacemaking moves has been unceremoniously moved out. New Delhi will have to tread carefully in any attempt to engage more closely with Pakistan, given the powerful forces on the other side ranged against any such outcome.

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