Monsoon trailer

If the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) forecast of a fourth consecutive normal South-West monsoon for 2022 comes good, it could be a significant tailwind to the fledgling economic recovery. Though India has enjoyed normal monsoons for three years now, strong agricultural output this year can lift farm incomes given the firm prices of agri-commodities. In its first-stage forecast, IMD projects all-India rainfall at 99 per cent of long-period average (which has been revised slightly downwards to 867 mm from 881 mm). The probability of normal, above normal or excess rains is pegged at 60 per cent. The IMD’s track record in predicting overall monsoon performance has been quite good in recent years, with the quantum of rainfall exceeding its first-stage forecast in each of the last three years. Should this monsoon prove normal, not just in terms of quantum of rains but also spatial and temporal spread, it could turn around the fortunes of India’s rural economy which has been left in bad shape post-Covid.

But the IMD’s first-stage forecast needs to read with caution on three counts. One, April tends to be early to assess the evolution of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) weather patterns which wield a significant influence on the Indian monsoon. This year, the IMD has noted the prevalence of La Nina conditions which tend to be positive for the monsoon, but also expects neutral IOD conditions to transition to negative once the monsoon sets in. This could skew the monthly distribution of rains. In 2021, it was a negative IOD that led to deficient rains in North-West and Central India in July and August. The IMD’s updated forecasts in May and June may provide a fuller picture. Two, despite the monsoon season in recent years concluding with ‘normal’ rains, they have been characterised by more frequent dry spells and extreme rain events playing havoc with crop yields. While not much can be done about this, wider dissemination of IMD’s nowcasts and crop insurance can mitigate risks to farmers to some extent. Three, the rabi harvest now contributes almost as much as kharif to annual agricultural output, so prudent water conservation during the monsoon and close monitoring of post-monsoon storage are necessary.

While the Centre cannot control the monsoon vagaries, it can certainly ensure that farmers are well-prepared to reap the rewards of a normal monsoon. Domestic stocks of fertilisers and agri-inputs must be shored up, with subsidy and import policies framed well in advance, so that farmers are not left high and dry amid global shortages. Minimum support prices for kharif crops must be announced well in advance based on market intelligence, so that farmers may receive the right signals on which crops to prioritise. It is not often that Indian farmers get a shot at improving their incomes both through higher output and remunerative prices. India must make the most of this rare opportunity.

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