Rise and rise of Xi

It was a marathon 203-minute speech that spelt out in the most unambiguous terms who was the boss. The sheer length signalled that Xi Jinping is a leader of the Chinese Communist Party like no other since Chairman Mao or Deng Xiaoping, and that the 2,280 delegates to the 19th Communist Party conference would have to hang onto and mull over his every word. The content of the speech reinforced this message, as Xi expounded on everything from soil erosion to cyber-security, global governance and the rise of China in the global order. No issue was too tiny to escape the eagle eye of Chairman Xi.

This is Xi’s second term and it should be his last, according to the rules followed faithfully by China’s top leaders since the death of Deng. But last year Xi was named a ‘core’ leader, a term only used before for Mao and Deng. What’s more, he has ruthlessly consolidated power in the last five years and eliminated potential rivals using an anti-corruption drive described as “fighting tigers, destroying flies and hunting down foxes” that has claimed 100,000 people and 120 high-ranking party officials. One prominent victim of the drive was fellow ‘princeling’ Bo Xilai, who was once considered a potential candidate for the top job after Xi. Visitors to Beijing this week have been struck by posters praising Xi plastered all over the capital, giving the party Congress the “look and feel of a coronation”. What does Xi’s rise mean for the world? He’s clearly determined that China should gain a pre-eminent position in global affairs and unlike an earlier generation of Chinese leaders, he isn’t afraid to whip off the velvet glove and reveal an iron fist, whether in the South China Sea or in the Himalayas. He’s also determined to use China’s economic might for schemes like the Belt and Road Initiative that would spread its influence across Asia. At the same time, he wants to reinforce state control of industry and shut down steel mills and cement factories that are overproducing and causing a problem of plenty, thus contributing to environmental degradation. But Xi’s dreams of global dominance could fall foul of China’s huge debt overhang and a bubble-like real estate sector. International economists this week were questioning China’s perhaps too-good-to-be-true growth figures.

As China rises, India must play its cards with more caution than ever before. We challenged the Chinese and were able to extricate ourselves from the Doklam imbroglio without losing face. That military stand-off was watched intently across Asia and also by the US. In fact, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Wednesday showered praise on India, comparing it favourably to the Chinese. But we mustn’t overestimate our strength or forget that the Chinese economy is five times larger than ours. And we must ensure that we do not allow ourselves to be pushed to the forefront of an anti-Chinese alliance and into unnecessary conflict situations.

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