Signals from Turkey

President Recep Tayyib Erdogan of Turkey has scraped through in a controversial referendum that grants him sweeping powers over the judiciary and considerable immunity from parliamentary scrutiny. The ‘executive presidency’ so created allows him the power to impose a state of Emergency almost at will. In fact, the referendum itself has been conducted in a state of Emergency, imposed after the failed army coup in July last year, which led to an unprecedented crackdown on political dissenters, writers and journalists. Amidst allegations of poll rigging and a ‘yes’ vote of just 51 per cent, largely outside the cities, it looks like Erdogan will have to contend with a fair bit of dissent from Turkey’s educated and westernised middle-class in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. The referendum was conducted amidst a sentiment that Erdogan needed enhanced powers to take on destabilising forces such as the Islamic State and Kurdish extremists. With over three million Syrian refugees in Turkey and terror attacks that have claimed over 300 lives in the last year alone, Turkey sees itself in a state of siege. This is despite the fact that under Erdogan’s 14-year rule, Turkey has been among the world top 20 economies. While Turkey is likely to veer towards authoritarianism and conservatism (Erdogan is already dubbing all dissenters ‘terrorists’), it is likely to become a significant player in the West Asia chessboard, particularly with US backing.

Turkey under Erdogan seems no longer keen on EU membership. (The fact that Erdogan is considering reintroducing the death penalty is a blatant provocation to Europe.) This is understandable in view of the fact that the EU faces an existential challenge, with Britain out of it and the rise of nationalist elements in other countries. Besides, southern and eastern Europe are in economic disarray. But for a country that remained beholden to the idea of European secularism for decades under Kemal Attaturk, this lurch towards religious conservatism, marks a historic break from the past. Erdogan’s projection of secularism as an elite project has won him popular support. Beyond Turkey, Erdogan may well seek to position Turkey as a leader of West Asia, and as a counterpoint to Saudi Arabia and Iran. Despite Erdogan’s dubious democratic credentials, there can be no denying that both his brand of still relatively moderate Islamism (compared to Iran and Saudi Arabia) as well as Turkey’s age-old cosmopolitanism may win him long-term western backing. It must not be forgotten that Turkey has been a ruling power for four centuries in West Asia.

India should be prepared for changed power equations in West Asia with the rise of Turkey. There are lessons to be learnt from the rapid whittling down of democratic institutions and the rise of religiosity the world over. Cosmopolitanism is in retreat globally. Democracy has become the domain of demagogues. The referendum in Turkey reminds us of all these unpleasant truths.

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