A big surprise of the Iran election was its supreme religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei asking all Iranians to vote in the elections held last Friday. Urging the people, who were highly disenchanted by the suspected “rigged” election result of 2009 which declared Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner, he said they should vote “even if they don’t want to support the Islamic ruling establishment”. In order to support their country, they must turn up on the voting day.

Well, the Iranians did heed his call and turned up in large numbers — 72 per cent — to vote for the moderate cleric Hassan Rouhani, whose candidature was endorsed at the nth hour by former Presidents Mohammed Khatami and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. With a doctorate from Glasgow Caledonian University, Iran’s President-elect has been a nuclear negotiator in a former regime and is considered a moderate, if not a liberal. He has made clear his intentions of improving relations with western nations which have hit rock bottom.

With long years of sanctions imposed vis-a-vis its controversial nuclear programme, this oil-rich nation is reeling under its worst-ever financial crisis. He is considered an experienced diplomat and politician who is amenable to reason and very different from the unpredictable outgoing president. Rouhani has promised his electorate that he will find a way out of the stalemate that the Ahmadinejad regime hit with the US and other Western nations over its nuclear programme.

GLOBal community reacts

The first few reactions from the international community, particularly Western countries which have been at loggerheads with Iran over its nuclear programme, even while endorsing and supporting Israel’s right to arm itself with nuclear weapons, have been guarded. While the White House spokesman hoped that the new Iranian regime would listen to its people’s voice and “make responsible choices that create a better future for all Iranians”, Britain urged Rouhani to engage with the international community, address its concerns on its nuclear ambitions and have a “constructive” relationship with the international community (read the Western nations)”.

Israel, which would of course like to continue to be the sole nuclear power in West Asia, was not impressed by the election results. A hostile Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu cautioned the international community not to indulge in “wishful thinking and loosen the pressure on Iran to stop its nuclear programme”.

Immediate concerns

But forget the international community. For the beleaguered people of Iran — an image that troubles me is that of the stunningly beautiful and confident women of Tehran who had once donned elegant clothing and played an important role in Iran, but have now been forced behind the black chadar and veil — the immediate priorities are revival of its economy. The sanctions have shattered the Iranian rial, which strengthened by 6 per cent against the US dollar once the results came out on Saturday, and the diktat of its repressive regimes have smothered civil liberties and trampled on women’s rights.

Watching the clips of youngsters in Tehran celebrating Rouhani’s victory, one image that caught the eye was that of a pretty young Iranian woman, with eye make-up and a hint of lipstick, waving a huge portrait of her new leader. Unlike another woman in the same frame with a proper hijab , this one had carelessly slung an olive green scarf over her head, and surprise of surprises, a good part of her jet black hair was visible.

Khameini still rules

Of course, such solitary images are no guarantee of the new Iranian regime guaranteeing women’s rights. For, after all, the really important measures the new regime takes will need the blessings of Ayatullah Khameini. Just like important decisions in the BJP — such as the anointment of Narendra Modi as the party’s election committee chief — have to get the blessings from the RSS headquarters in Nagpur! And one cannot expect Khameini to turn a liberal overnight.

But what this supreme religious leader will certainly want is the realisation of the hope expressed by a young man, celebrating Rouhani’s victory in Tehran that night, that the decisions taken by the new regime will revive the rial and “the national dignity of Iran and pay attention to unemployment and other economic issues”.

At the end of the day, it is all about rozi-roti , and the Congress should know more than anybody else that if there is a frenzy and clamour for Modi as the next prime minister of India, even if only from the vocal segments of Indian society, it is not because Indians have suddenly embraced the hard Hindutva vibes that leaders like Modi send out. They do so hoping for a better future, a future which will bring them economic security and revive India’s “dignity” and image as an emerging economic superpower.

The most interesting analogy on the Iranian election and why Khameini would be interested in seeing a moderate like Rouhani at the country’s helm was made in a Bloomberg analysis.

Comparing Khameini to a top investment guru like Warren Buffet, it said that he too is “answerable to his shareholders when making a big investment pick. Both men enjoy enormous personal authority, but if they keep hurting the interests of their shareholders by getting the big choices wrong, that authority will erode”.

Khamenei’s principal shareholders, said this article, are the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Principalists, a broad coalition of conservative politicians. Khamenei’s last investment, Ahmadinejad, didn’t work well. His antics and inflammatory speeches hurt the economy, affecting the alleged investments of the Guards in Iranian majors such as National Iranian Oil Company.

A good gamble?

However you look at it… a gamble that Khameini has taken to revive Iran’s economy and along with it the fortunes of those close to him, or a genuine outcome of the Iranian people’s burning desire for change, Rouhani does hold out a hope to his people… ordinary Iranians, who were seen chanting on Tehran’s streets “Bye Bye Ahmadi”, as the results came out.

All eyes will also be on Rouhani to watch how he engages with the Arab world. He will have to take a call on Tehran’s support of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad; there are reports that even before the election, Iran had decided to send 4,000 of its Revolutionary Guards to assist Assad against the mostly-Sunni rebels. Syria’s opposition coalition has already urged Rouhani to recognise the will of the Syrian people and not support Assad’s “tyrannical rule”.

How he handles the perennial troubled relations of Iran with Iraq will be another vital test of his mettle. How much freedom he will have to take independent decisions is the moot question.

While wheels operate within wheels in the governance issues of Iran, as they do in the best of so-called liberal regimes which mercilessly crush whistleblowers such as Julian Assange and, more recently, Edward Snowden, while preaching openness and civil liberties to the rest of the world, at least the people of Iran have cause for optimism and hope… that their tomorrow will be better than today.

Responses to rasheeda.bhagat@thehindu.co.in

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