North India’s latent ‘demographic dividend’

There is a clear demographic divergence between north-central and south-western regions; one is a young hinterland with vast labour force and the other ones are ageing with decreasing working age population. Most of the current and future demographic potential is locked in the north-central States, and largely located in Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh.

As per population projections by UNFPA, these five States will account for more than half of the growth in the labour force in India. Those who are under 15 years of age today will become India’s working population in coming decades. Almost every second person in this age group resides in these five States. The accompanying figure shows that there is a gap of almost 20 years between the northern hinterland and southern States in terms of the peak of the working age ratios in these regions.

When the total as well as percentage of working population will be declining in the advanced demographic transition States, it will still be increasing in north-central States. Of the 628 million population growth during 2001-2061, 400 million (two-third of the total addition) will be only in six north-central States. In the advanced demographic transition States, the total workforce size is projected to increase from 200 million in 2011 to 227 million in 2031 and then it will start decreasing to reach 183 million in 2061; 17 million less in 2061 than 2011.

During the same period, the working age population in the late demographic stage States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh etc. will increase from 297 million in 2011 to 446 million in 2031 to reach a maximum of 526 million in 2051 and 515 million in 2061; with a net increase of 218 million. In terms of proportion of the total national working age population, their share will keep on increasing from today to 2061; from 40 per cent in 2011 to 53 per cent in 2061. The share of the advanced demographic stage States, on the other hand, will keep on decreasing; from 27 per cent in 2011 to approximately 18 per cent in 2061.

There are several policy implications of this demographic divergence.

First, the north-central region is and will be the hub of labour force in the country. If India wants to become a developed nation, the key lies in these very States. These States could become major contributors to the socio-economic development in the country if the right policies and commensurate attention and resources are allotted to realise the full potential of their large young population.

Second, the greying south-western region will require workers for keeping institutions running, taking care of the elderly and maintaining the economic productivity while the north-central region will have high and possibly surplus young working age population. This will lead to increased migration and urbanisation. Already, the migration trends are evident, with established flows of young people from north-central States to other parts in the country. Demographic divergence will render further impetus to migration. Migration could be a big game changer and a win-win situation for individuals, families, States (both sending and receiving) and the nation if collaborative planning is done by migration origin and destination States with the national government acting as a facilitator for such collaborations.

Infra and social support

There is a need to gain deeper understanding of migration flows, so that estimations and projections can be made regarding changing needs for housing and infrastructure, healthcare and utilities, education and skills. States need to work together to provide portability of identity proof and entitlements, as well as build support systems for families left behind. India urgently needs to take cognisance of the divergent demographic transition trends. Timely strategic action can develop human capacities to cater to future needs and build rights-based policies that work for migrants as well as locals. Third, nearly one third of India’s population, 377 million, lives in urban areas. The level of urbanisation is higher in the advanced demographic stage States in south-western region, accounting for 45 per cent population of the total nation’s urban population. For the first time in Indian history, the population increase was more in urban areas compared to rural areas during 2001-2011. The large young and working population in the years to come will migrate to urban areas within their own and other States, leading to rapid and large-scale increase in urban population.

Hence, it is a no brainer that there has to be increased focus on urbanisation. How these migrating people can have access to basic amenities, health and social services in urban areas need to be the focus of urban policy planning.

In brief, there is a demographic divergence between regions in India and this should be seen not as a problem but an opportunity for overall socio-economic development in the country. And to make it happen, the policy focus has to be on education, health, skills and gainful employment, especially women’s participation in workforce; safe, voluntary and gainful migration; and inclusive urbanisation.

The writer is National Programme Officer (Population and Development, UN Population Fund

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