Obama or Romney — should it matter to India? - YES

In the run-up to the US elections, Indian commentators claimed that the outcome did not matter to India. Never mind if there is a Democrat or Republican President, for there is bipartisan consensus about the importance of a strategic relationship with India.

This argument tends to view US-India relations from a narrow bilateral perspective. In fact, the relationship has always been influenced by the wider arc of American foreign policy. From this standpoint, an Obama victory is decidedly better for India. Whatever the Republicans’ claims about the geopolitical importance of India, their larger foreign policy vision remains uncongenial. . To be sure, Obama is no dove. Yet there is no mistaking the alternatives on offer. Drone strikes or regime change? The choice shouldn’t be difficult.

Going forward, the contours of US-India relations will be shaped by Obama’s policies on range of issues. Three are particularly important. First, the manner in which the US pulls out of Afghanistan will have significant implications for India. In a year’s time, the US needs to arrange a smooth presidential election in Afghanistan, stitch together a face-saving truce agreement with the Taliban, and prepare the Afghan forces to take on the Taliban when the deal inevitably unravels. It’s a tall order and the US’ ability to pull it off remains uncertain.

Second, will Obama now be able to craft a sensible approach towards Iran? The policy of sanctions and threats is unlikely to persuade Tehran to forsake its nuclear ambitions. Obama has not only to give diplomacy a serious chance, but also to rein in the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. If he falters on either count, there could be a major crisis in the Persian Gulf with serious consequences for India’s interests in West Asia.

Third, the manner in which Obama deals with the new Chinese leadership will be watched closely by New Delhi. In his first term, Obama began by trying to strike a working arrangement with Beijing. Since then, he has announced a “pivot” towards Asia. This is a thinly-veiled attempt to create a countervailing coalition against China. Rushing into this venture will not be in India’s interests. More problematic is the possibility that one of China’s smaller neighbours may feel emboldened by American backing to provoke China, resulting in a larger stand-off. Think of Georgia’s misadventure with Russia.

Bipartisan consensus in the US about India is a good thing. But it is not good enough to ensure a genuinely harmonious relationship. That will depend on Obama’s wider foreign policy choices.

(The author is Senior Fellow, Centre for Policy Research.)

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