The exit polls indicate that NDA could either form the government on its own or be just shy of the majority mark. If this comes true, what would be reaction of the people who wanted to oust Modi at all costs?

These people are already accusing the Congress of arrogance and inflexibility that acted as a hurdle in fielding a united opposition candidate against the NDA in most of the constituencies and ceding ground to the NDA. How far is this accusation true?

The move to form a pan-India alliance to oust Modi should have started with the Assembly elections of MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. But why did that not happen?

With just 5 per cent vote share, the BSP demanded 50 seats out of the 230 of MP Assembly for an alliance with Congress.

As the Congress was lukewarm to this proposal, the BSP contested independently in MP and Rajasthan elections and formed an alliance with Ajit Jogi in Chhattisgarh, a one-time Congress strongman , which annoyed the Congress.

The decision to drop Congress from the UP Mahagathbandhan except for two seats of Rae Bareli and Amethi is to be seen in this backdrop.

The Congress knew very well that to become part of the Mahagathbandhan in UP, it would have to cede sizeable number of seats to BSP and SP in States like MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Punjab etc and the net sum will be either zero or negative for the Congress and hence did not go down this path.

Given this, is it fair to accuse the Congress for not forming an alliance in UP?

In West Bengal, given Mamata Banerjee’s aversion to an alliance with the Congress and the fiasco of the Left-Congress tie-up in the 2016 Assembly elections, it became a four-cornered contest there.

In Delhi, it was a three-cornered contest as AAP and the Congress failed to seal a deal. Also AAP’s demand of an alliance with Congress extend to Punjab, Haryana, and Goa was unacceptable to the Congress.

The Congress virtually disappeared in AP since the State’s bifurcation in 2014.

When Chandrababu Naidu came forward to align with Congress in the December 2018 Telangana Assembly elections, the Congress hoped for an alliance in AP too. But after the TDP-Congress’ decimation in Telangana, Naidu was kept away from the Congress. That left little scope for the Congress to ally with any party.

Riding piggyback

It is in the DNA of Congress to piggyback on other parties and never allow them to piggyback on it.

In TN, the Congress has been piggybacking either on DMK or AIADMK over the last 40 years, thereby immensely benefited by getting substantial number of parliamentary seats in many parliament elections, disproportionate to its vote base.

Even in the 2019 general elections, with just four per cent vote base, the Congress managed to get 10 seats from DMK out of 40 seats in TN and Puducherry.

Congress would go for alliance only if it is allowed to ride piggyback on others.

It is a pity that those who want to oust Modi did not take into account this unique characteristic of the Congress and still expected it to change its DNA in order to oust Modi.

The writer is a public policy analyst

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