The confounding Syrian conflict

The US-led missile-strike on Syria is the latest in a long list of questionable actions that in no way seem like resolving the bloody conflict other than inflicting more damage and causing deaths of innocent people.

The joint missile strike by the US, UK and France is the second such attack in response to the use of chemical weapons, blamed on the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad. That the regime was behind the chemical attack is, however, yet to be conclusively established.

Unending crisis

Seven years since a peoples’ uprising in Syria demanding democracy, the country has lurched from one crisis to another until a point has reached where the conflict has taken on absurd hues.

It is no longer clear why the violence is continuing amidst a complex change in equations amongst those involved in the conflict.

Violence and attacks by the various players in the conflict appear to have taken a life of their own with no clear purpose — a cruel means to an end that is nowhere in sight.

What started off as a popular revolt against the authoritarian government of Bashar al-Assad has now degenerated into a mindless conflict.

The initial purpose behind the uprising, to unseat Bashar al-Assad, has lost its way in a confounding maze.

Ironically, the regime continues firmly in power with the backing of Russia and Iran.

A deconstruction of the conflict is necessary to make some sense of what is going on. What started off as a mass peaceful uprising at Daraa, some 100 km from the capital Damascus in mid-March 2011, demanding democracy was met with an unexpectedly violent response from the Bashar government. Security forces fired on peaceful demonstrators killing several.

An outraged civilian population was forced to back off, but sections of people returned with weapons to take on the security forces.

Many serving military personnel quit in disgust and joined the revolt.

The uprising spread to several parts of the country. Happening as it did in the throes of peaceful protests which saw change of dictatorial regimes in Tunisia and Egypt, Syrians were naturally hopeful they would succeed.

The US, seeing an opportunity to unseat their bête noire Bashar, moved in to back the civilian rebels with arms, training and all possible support. A key Western ally Turkey was the conduit for supplies and logistical help. Weeks turned into months and months have turned into years since the uprising began and there is no sign that Bashar al-Assad is in any way weaker than when it started.

Rebels split

The reason for Bashar’s staying power is not him alone. The rebels who started off as secular Syrian citizens without bothering about religion, sect or any other difference soon split. The radical Islamists (al-Nusra) broke away from the secular Free Syrian Army. Soon, al-Nusra and other similar groups merged with the Islamic State, weakening the opposition.

By breaking up in this manner, the rebels also proved Bashar right when he had earlier warned that the revolt would play into the hands of Islamic radicals.

Not only did the rebels split, they fought with each other. This willy-nilly gave the government a breather. Worse, Western aid including weapons found their way to the Islamic State.

Another important factor was dependence on Turkey.

The US roped in the Kurds who are a sizeable population on the Syria-Turkey border to help in fighting government forces.

By all accounts, the Kurds did a commendable job. But, this upset the Turkish government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan which has all but outlawed Kurds within the country. The reason is that Kurds within Turkey are fighting a separatist movement represented by the banned PKK.

Erdogan peeved

Erdogan, upset with the growing strength and role of the Kurds in Syria, has distanced himself from the US. Consequently, Washington can no longer rely on him as a partner. The Turkish military has also started attacking the Kurds in Syria despite the fact that they are meant to be on the same side in fighting the al-Assad regime.

In addition, there have been reports that Turkey may be on the sly helping the Islamic State and other radical elements among Syrian rebels to fight the Kurds. This has angered the US which does not want to see Bashar al-Assad replaced by a radical Islamist regime.

Russia angle

Russia, which was not present overtly on the Syrian scene when the uprising began, eventually entered the fray in support of Bashar al-Assad. While this has bolstered the Syrian government considerably, the West has been unable to counter Moscow’s intervention effectively.

Russia has targeted all factions of the Syrian rebels, weakening the already emasculated groups. This, even while insisting that it is only targeting the Islamic State.

As for the US which was determined to somehow oust Bashar al-Assad, they are not sure now as there does not seem to be a viable secular alternative. The resulting confusion is there for the world to see.

The rebels are hopelessly split, the Syrian security forces continue to relentlessly bombard their own fellow-citizens, killing scores and sending thousands fleeing out of the country while many cities like Aleppo and Homs renowned for their ancient heritage sites have all but been decimated.

Turkey is fighting the Kurds while the US and its Western allies do not appear to have a clue how to resolve this.

Russia and Iran continue to back Bashar to the hilt and have no intention of sacrificing him for peace. As for common Syrians, some have even been quoted as saying they rue the day they gathered on the streets to demand democracy.

The writer was formerly Editor at Aljazeera based in Doha

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