The gender dimension to automation

In the automation age, both women and men face significant disruption to their working lives. Jobs will be changed, lost and gained due to automation.

McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) finds that by 2030, more than 300 million jobs net of automation could be added to the labour markets in the ten countries analysed, but workers need — more than ever — to be skilled, mobile, and tech savvy. However, these are also the areas where women are most disadvantaged.

There is thus a compelling argument for initiatives — on skilling and economic opportunity — that are tailored to women’s particular challenges.

New MGI research finds that while automation may impact men and women on roughly the same scale, the patterns of impact will vary because of sharp gender differences in where women and men tend to work.

In many countries, women account for more than 70 per cent of workers in healthcare and social assistance, but less than 25 per cent of machine operators and craft workers.

In the ten economies studied (six mature and four emerging), if automation proceeds on the scale of other technological disruptions in the past, 20 per cent of women working today could see their job displaced by automation (versus 21 per cent of men) by 2030.

Many — if not most — men and women will need to raise their skills or learn new ones to equip themselves for the jobs that will be most demanded.

The largest increase in labour demand is likely to be for roles that require at least a secondary education, but in countries like China and India net demand for jobs requiring associate, bachelor’s, and advanced degrees is also expected to grow. These skill shifts imply changes in wage levels — and the gender pay gap. On average in emerging economies, work is expected to move away from lower-paid occupations in agriculture to higher-wage occupations in services.

If women can equip themselves to migrate in this way, the gender pay gap could narrow. But this is a big if.

Many emerging economies have made significant strides in closing the educational gender gap. Nevertheless, many women, continue to work in subsistence agriculture — in India, about 60 per cent of employed women — and have little education and narrow skills; they will find it hard to find employment elsewhere without a step up in both.

Women lag behind men in the tech skills that will increasingly be in demand, and which can open many more doors to women’s economic opportunity from flexible working in the gig economy to running their own e-commerce business.

Around the world, one study found that women account for only 35 per cent of science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) students in higher education, and, even there, they tend to study natural sciences rather than applied sciences related to ICT.

Moreover, there is a significant digital gender divide with women having less access to digital and internet technologies than men. In South Asia, GSMA estimates that women are 28 per cent less likely to own a mobile phone and 58 per cent less likely to use mobile internet.

Digital divide

The digital gender divide needs to close, and, at the same time, more tailored programmes focussed on women are needed. We are beginning to see efforts in this direction.

Non-profits from Afghanistan to the US are focussing on developing girls’ coding skills. In China, for instance, the All-China Women’s Federation partners with a number of private-sector companies, including Alibaba, to provide training and networking for women, especially in e-commerce and technology sectors.

The case for tech skills is not only about meeting future demand for labour, but tackling one of the other major barriers for women: mobility.

Training needs to go to women rather than women to training, because so many of them juggle paid work (and training) with family commitments.

Investment (both public and private) in digital learning platforms could be particularly useful for women to enable them to train while staying close to home if need be.

Companies need to do more to give women the flexibility they need. In China, one study found that flexible work policies increased job satisfaction and reduced the likelihood of an employee leaving a company — and more so in the case of women than men.

Despite the potential displacement effects of automation, there will be job gains too for women, especially in key emerging economies, reflecting rising incomes and demand.

Globally, 20 per cent of women (and 19 per cent of men) could gain employment relative to the employed population today.

China versus India

Potential gains differ in China and India for women and men. In China, 33 per cent of women versus 28 per cent of men could gain employment; in India, the figures are 19 per cent for women — reflecting the fact that agriculture, which employs such a high percentage of women in India, is not expected to add jobs — and 24 per cent for men.

Taking potential job losses and job gains together, MGI finds that more than 300 million net jobs could be added to the global labour market by 2030, and China and India could account for the majority of this growth.

To thrive in this rapidly changing labour market, millions of men and women may need to transition between occupations and sectors.

Globally, between 40 million and 160 million women — 7 to 24 per cent of those currently employed — may have to make these transitions, comparable with 8 to 28 per cent for men. These wide ranges reflect automation on a scale comparable with other technological disruptions of the past, and even more rapid change.

The automation age offers women a chance for higher-paid employment but also a new set of challenges overlaid on long-standing ones that have limited progress towards gender equality at work.

Skills, particularly tech skills, and mobility are the keys that will unlock new opportunities.

The writer is Chairman, Asia, McKinsey & Company

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