The pandemic period witnessed a sharp decline in mobility due to successive lockdowns and other restrictions. Studies have reported that the use of public transport fell 90 per cent globally as of May 2020, compared to pre-pandemic times. With vaccination drive across the world, progress is being made in combating Covid-19.

For the post-pandemic era, there are two questions that need to be contemplated upon: a) Will demand for travel in urban centres return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon? b) Will the effects of the pandemic on urban mobility persist long into the future.

Let us first analyse the trends during the pre-Covid period. There’s the tendency to believe that travel demand has been growing, thanks to large scale urbanisation, increasing economic activities, improvements in modes of transportation, etc. However, the fact is travel demand started falling during the pre-pandemic period.

According to the first ‘Report of Commission on Travel Demand, May 2018 (pre-pandemic era), UK’, “We travel substantially less today, per head of population, than we did one or two decades ago. We make 16 per cent fewer trips than in 1996, travel 10 per cent fewer miles than in 2002 and spend 22 hours less travelling than we did a decade ago.”

This unexpected decline in demand for transportation was driven by alternatives offered by emerging technologies such as work from home, gig economy, freelancing, e-commerce, home delivery of food, etc.

This slow and steady decline in demand for urban travel witnessed an unprecedented sharp decline during the pandemic period. The long-term impact of pandemics on urban travel is a matter of great interest among academicians as well as professionals engaged in urban planning.

Studies have shown that people have developed digital habits during the pandemic. They have discovered new opportunities to work, shop and enjoy leisure activities online. Individuals as well as organisations have adopted digital means and adapted to the digital ecosystem, which means less requirement to travel. Today, unless specified otherwise, virtual communication has become the default option for official meetings.

A study carried out in Melbourne suggests that after the pandemic, public transport ridership will not return to pre-pandemic levels. A post-pandemic reduction of around 20 per cent in transit commuting is expected. The per day passenger utilisation of Delhi Metro has fallen from around 5.8 million during pre-pandemic period to 4 million at present, despite lifting of all the restrictions in Delhi.

This unexpected decline in demand for transportation is driven by transformational changes expected in our way of life during the post-pandemic period, especially towards work, shopping, and adoption of technology.

Hybrid model

Work is the biggest motivation for travel demand. Before the pandemic, around half of the trips in a typical urban centre were made to access the workplace. During the pandemic period, many were forced to work from home. As the situation is normalising, many companies are exploring a hybrid model of working.

TCS, Infosys and HCL have already decided to continue with the hybrid model. TCS has announced its intention to adopt a 25×25 policy. Under this policy, it will require not more than 25 per cent of the company’s associates to work from an office at any given point in time, and they need not spend more than 25 per cent of their time in the office Infosys also plans to adopt a hybrid model of working in the long term.

According to a survey report titled ‘Future of work — Implication for India’s Tech Industry’, published in June by Nasscom and BCG, more than 70 per cent of employees prefer hybrid work.

The emergence of the gig economy is further promoting work from anywhere. By definition, a “gig” means a project, task or assignment for which a person is hired on-demand for the duration of the project. In the gig economy, freelancers would like to work from home, avoid travelling during peak hours, prefer to do video-conferencing instead of meetings and thus reduce the travel demand.

E-commerce grew significantly during the pandemic, driven by the closure of physical shops and more and more people experiencing the convenience of online shopping. The pandemic accelerated the shift towards online shopping, with e-commerce growing two to five times faster than before Covid struck.

During a survey by Internet Retailing, 70.6 per cent of respondents stated that they are now less likely to shop in-store, despite the ending of Covid restrictions within the UK. In line with the growth of e-commerce, the trend for home delivery of food is also becoming popular by the day. The convenience-seeking millennial generation is showing a greater appetite for having food delivered at home. The use of drones has also started for quick delivery of food which is further going to reduce freight transportation on roads.

Adoption of emerging tech

The pandemic has also accelerated the wide-scale adoption of emerging technologies such as AI, robotics, Internet of Things (IoT) telemedicine, e-learning, 3D printing, Augmented/Virtual Reality (AR/VR), and metaverse Each of these technologies has the potential to reduce travel demand. AI and robotics have already started replacing repetitive jobs which don’t require much cognitive abilities; these can be done better and more cost-effectively by machines.

IoT is promoting automation in a big way, thus requiring less manpower and travel. Telemedicine will reduce the need to visit the hospital at least for minor illnesses, and e-learning will do away with the need to attend educational institutes physically. With 3D printing, the products will not be required to be transported over large distances from production units to consumption centres.

Metaverse promises to create an immersive, interactive and shared digital world that brings together mixed reality — AR and VR — along with 3D holographic avatars, IoT and digital twins. For remote workers, the immersive experience could dramatically improve the employee experience and efficiency.

The impact of these technologies on travel demand needs to be considered while planning transport infrastructure in a city which is typically designed based on a long term forecast of ever-growing travel demand. The post-pandemic world is likely to witness a perceptible decline in travel demand due to the digital transformation of our work, economy, society, and our way of life. .

The pandemic, with all its hardships, has brought an opportunity to reduce the travel demand for a sustainable future. The opportunity is not worth missing at any cost.

The writer is with CRIS, Ministry of Railways. Views are personal

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