Scientists and technologists find solutions for the messes made by political leaders.

So, a world which talked about ‘peak oil’ and a looming shortage of fossil fuels, is now seeing crude prices at record lows and a glut of oil/gas, thanks to the new technology of horizontal fracking.

For investors, the new disruptive technologies — brought about to solve problems created by the excesses of consumptive growth economic models — are something to be watched. These technologies can disrupt existing business and adversely affect investments, and can have both good and bad consequences.

Disrupting solar For instance, Elon Musk, founder of electric-car company Tesla, has announced its intentions to set up a gigafactory in India, to make lithium-ion storage batteries. This would not only provide jobs and new technology but would be a big boost for solar power. The problem with solar energy is that the power is difficult and expensive to store. But batteries can solve that, once it becomes commercially viable.

The book, No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends , written by Directors of McKinsey, predicts that the cost of lithium-ion batteries will fall by a third, in the next decade. How should this matter? And which industries would get affected?

India has only 4.57 Gigawatts (GW) of solar power capacity today, but has the potential to generate 759 GW. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set a target of 100GW by 2020 — an ambitious target.

With a storage battery a home can generate rooftop solar power, and use the power stored in the battery at night, to make the home grid independent. Should the storage battery become scaleable enough over the longer term, it would affect power generation companies and power grids.

It would also affect coal producers. Globally, coal is now a dirty industry, because of its carbon emissions and countries such as Australia and the US are seeing distressed sales of coal assets. In India, heavily dependent as it is on coal, we are aiming to expand our coal production but over a longer term, there will be increasing global pressure on India to cut its coal emissions.

The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2050, solar and wind will surpass fossil fuels in production of energy.  

Cars redesigned One of the bigger users of energy is the automobile industry, largely because the automobile was designed in an age where fossil fuels usage or care for the environment, were not of great concern, but speed and safety were.

Hence, today, cars are made of heavier but safer material than steel and are designed for comfort and speed. The emerging technology is of a 3D printed car called Strati.

This can be printed in 44 hours, and assembled in 48 hours. It will be made of lighter material such as reinforced carbon fibres, and will have far fewer moving parts.

Thanks to self-driving cars, which are better than human drivers in avoiding accidents, the vehicle can be made of lighter materials. The Strati is not just a concept; a fully functional model was displayed at the International Manufacturing Technology show in Chicago.

Self-driving cars, combined with shared services like Uber or Ola, make the case for private ownership of cars weak.

Why own a car when you can get a taxi, at a low cost, within minutes? And, when cars can be custom made on a 3D printer, in two days, at a low cost because of alternative material and fewer moving parts, what would happen to the automobile industry?

The writer is India Head, Euromoney Conferences

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