What is your advise regarding medium- and long-term outlook on ABB and Siemens? Can these stocks be brought at current levels?

Anil Kumar Ray

ABB (Rs 640.8): ABB has been in doldrums since the 2009 low at Rs 352. It could not really emerge out of its long-term downtrend since rallies could not get past the hurdle at Rs 1,000. A fresh leg of downtrend dragged the stock down from the February 2012 peak at Rs 1,036, to the recent low at Rs 468.

That said, the medium-term trend  for the stock is up and it has already gained 43 per cent since this low. Next hurdle for the stock is at Rs 760. Investors with short- to medium-term horizon should exit the stock on failure to clear this level. The stock needs to overcome this impediment to move towards the long-term ceiling at Rs 1,000.

To signal a reversal in the long-term downtrend, the stock needs to move above Rs 1,000. Inability to do so will keep the stock vacillating in the zone between Rs 400 and Rs 1,000.

Medium-term supports are at Rs 558 and Rs 468. Next long-term support is placed at Rs 350.

Siemens (Rs 593.6): Siemens has long-term resistance in the zone around Rs 1,050. A significant peak was formed in this region in 2008. The stock once again reversed lower from this level in July 2011 and a long-term downtrend is evolving since then. The good news, however, is that the stock is reversing higher from the key long-term support at Rs 480.

The ongoing rally from this support will face resistance at Rs 650 and then at Rs 770 in the months ahead. If the stock is unable to move past the first resistance, it will mean that the stock can revert to Rs 480 or to the next support at Rs 400.

Strong move above Rs 770 is needed to pave the way for a rally to the Rs 1050 resistance zone.

Can I purchase Opto Circuits at current price? What are the prospects for this stock?

Rajeev Gera

Opto Circuits (Rs 31.5): A stock that has fallen steeply does hold a strange lure for investors since it is easy to believe that it can regain its former peak. But it needs to be remembered that stocks that are wont to take sharp dives, probably did not deserve to be at the heights they achieved. The rally to these astronomical peaks could have been the result of concerted price manoeuvres of a certain set of traders.

Caution is needed while dealing with Opto Circuits since the stock is down 80 per cent from its 2010 peak. It is best to steer clear of this stock. The main point of concern is that it has moved below its 2009 trough at Rs 53. The stock has also breached its final bastion at Rs 42 on Friday.

Trend along all-time frames is down in this stock. Medium-term trend will turn positive only on move above Rs 70. Key long-term resistance is in the band between Rs 112 and Rs 124.

I am holding Voltamp Transformers purchased at Rs 847 and Aditya Birla Nuvo bought at Rs 1,008. Please let me know the long-term prospect of these shares.

Arvind Dutta

Voltamp Transformers (Rs 397.7): Voltamp Transformers is in a vicious slide since the peak at Rs 1136 recorded in August 2010. It recently recorded a low at Rs 342 and a very feeble uptrend is in progress since then.

Long-term support for the stock exists at the trough formed in March 2009 at Rs 263. This can serve as the stop loss for long-term investors. It would be best to exit the stock if this level is breached.

Medium-term resistances are placed at Rs 650 and Rs 850. Key long-term hurdles are around Rs 1,100 and Rs 1,300.

Aditya Birla Nuvo (Rs 1,059.5): The long-term uptrend that began in 2009 continues to be in force in Aditya Birla Nuvo. Following a long-drawn consolidation phase in the range from Rs 700 and Rs 1050, the stock attempted to move higher towards the end of last calendar. This rally could not break past the resistance at Rs 1200 that is also an important Fibonacci retracement of the down-move from the January 2008 peak.

Investors with short to medium term perspective should exit the stock if it falters around the resistance at Rs 1200 again. That will imply a propensity to fluctuate in a band between Rs 700 and Rs 1200 for few more months.

Long-term targets on break above Rs 1,200 are Rs 1,430 and Rs 1,683. Stop loss for long-term investors can be at Rs 860.

What is the long-term outlook of Andhra Bank?

R.M. Kumarappan

Andhra Bank (Rs 85.9): Andhra Bank is in a long-term downtrend since the peak recorded in October 2010. This structural downtrend resumed from the January peak at Rs 130 and the stock is moving close to its key long-term support at Rs 77.

Long-term investors can hold the stock as long as it trades above Rs 75. Reversal from here can take the stock higher towards the resistances at Rs 120, Rs 133 and Rs 147.

Supports below Rs 75 are placed at Rs 70 and then at Rs 60.

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