Rupee: Be cautiously bullish intraday

The rupee (INR) posted a loss of one-tenth of a per cent yesterday against the US dollar (USD). As a result, the local currency closed just below the support at 75. Nevertheless, it does not appear to be a decisive break, and so it need not be taken as a bearish confirmation.

If the rupee continues to depreciate, 75.15 can be the immediate support. Below that level, it could drop to 75.4. On the other hand, if the domestic currency rallies, the exchange rate might move to 74.8, which can be a hurdle. Subsequent resistance is at 74.6.

After registering a net inflow of a little over ₹1,100 crore (equity and debt combined) in the first two days of the week, foreign portfolio investors (FPI) turned sellers on Wednesday. The net outflow stood at nearly ₹1,000 crore, exerting pressure on the rupee resulting in a decline.

Dollar index

The dollar index, which saw a minor corrective rally on Tuesday, faced a strong resistance at 97 and declined yesterday. It is currently testing the support of 96.25, a break below which can drag the index to 96. Subsequently, it could even retest its prior low of 95.7. A fall in the index means that the dollar is facing downward pressure at the broader level and this can be a positive factor for the Indian currency.

Trade strategy

Today, INR has opened marginally higher at 74.94 versus yesterday’s close of 75.02 against the USD. As it is hovering around the critical level of 75, one should be cautious about initiating fresh positions. However, the rupee has good chance of staging a recovery until it witnesses a strong breach of the support at 75. Going by this, intraday, traders can buy the rupee on declines with stop-loss at 75.15.

Supports: 75 and 75.15

Resistances: 74.8 and 74.6