The long-term outlook for Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (₹768.75) will remain positive as long as the stock rules above ₹637. In the short term, HPCL may witness selling pressure. Immediate support is at ₹723 and resistance is at ₹817. A close above ₹849 will trigger a fresh rally that could take HPCL to new highs above ₹1,000. However, a close below ₹723 could drag the stock towards ₹678.
F&O pointers: HPCL October futures, which added 1.81 lakh shares on Friday, closed with a premium at ₹772.9 . This indicates healthy presence of long contracts. Option trading indicates that the stock could move in the ₹760-800 range.
Strategy: We advice traders to consider a bear-put strategy. This is best suited for those expecting the stock price to fall during the term of the options. Traders can consider buying ₹760 put and simultaneously selling ₹740 put. For this, traders will have to incur an initial outflow of ₹7.5/contract (₹3,750) to construct bear-put strategy. The amount paid will be the maximum loss one can incur in this strategy. For this to happen, HPCL will have to close at or above ₹760.
Similarly, the profit potential is also limited. A maximum profit of ₹6,250 or ₹12.5/contract is possible in this strategy on a close at or below ₹740.
Follow-up: Last week, we had advised a bull-call spread on Arvind. The stock has moved on expected lines. We advice traders to hold the strategy and close the position once Arvind closes above ₹290 conclusively.
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