Technical Analysis

Daily rupee call: Rally may not sustain 

Akhil Nallamuthu | Updated on April 03, 2020 Published on April 03, 2020

The rupee (INR) opened at 76.05 on Friday against the previous close of 76.3, and has moved above the important level of 76 against the dollar (USD). If the domestic currency manages to sustain above 76, it can rally towards 75.7 and 75.4, which are the resistance levels on the upside. But if the unit faces selling pressure and gives up the gains, 76.3 and 76.5 can act as support levels.

For March, the net outflow of Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs) was about ₹1.2 lakh crore, according to the data put out by National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL). Going ahead, if this trend continues in April, the rupee could come under more downward pressure.

Dollar index

The dollar index has been moving up since the beginning of this week after witnessing a significant sell-off during the last week. It has now inched above the important level of 100. If the index continues to advance, it can rally to 101, which means an increase in demand for the dollar. This could weigh on the rupee.

Trade strategy

Though the rupee is currently trading above 76, it can be bearish until it trades below 75.7. Hence, one can remain bearish on the local currency, until it breaks out of that level decisively.

For intraday, traders can short rupee with tight stop-loss if its moves to 75.7. On the other hand, instead of advancing to 75.7, if the rupee again falls back below 76, one can initiate a short position with a tight stop-loss.

 

Supports: 76.3 and 76.5

Resistances: 75.7 and 75.4

 

 

Published on April 03, 2020

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