MCX-Nickel likely to decline further
The spot price of Nickel on the MCX has been moving in a sideways trend for the past few trading sessions, oscillating between ₹960 and ₹1,000. This comes after the metal’s decline from ₹1,200 since the beginning of November. The support at ₹960 looks strong and this might arrest the price from falling further.
Like spot price, the December futures of Nickel on the MCX, is consolidating between ₹962 and ₹1000 following a downtrend. The contract has a support between ₹962 and ₹968. Thus, the futures contract looks to be in a position to appreciate from current levels. However, for the metal to establish a sustainable rally, it must decisively break above the important level of ₹1,000.
The RSI on the daily chart is near over-sold levels and the MACD indicator shows weakness in bearish momentum. These conditions hint that the downtrend might have come to a halt.
If the futures contract advances and breaks above ₹1,000, it is likely to rally to ₹1,050 in subsequent trading sessions. Notably, the 21-day moving average lies at ₹1,047. Further appreciation can take the contract higher to ₹1,076. On the other hand, if the contract breaks below ₹962, the bears may regain momentum, dragging the price to ₹924. Below that level, the support is at ₹900.
The price of three-month rolling forward contract of nickel on the LME is trading flat after a downtrend, similar to the metal’s price movement on the MCX. Currently trading at $13,405, the price is trading above a support band between $12,815 and $13,375. Support below these levels is at $12,080, whereas resistance on the upside is at $14,000.
Trading strategy
MCX-Nickel futures in MCX has bounced from a strong support and chances for price moving up is high. However, ₹1,000 is a critical resistance. Hence, traders are recommended to initiate fresh long positions only above ₹1,000 with tight stop-loss.
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