Technical Analysis

Rupee might weaken

Akhil Nallamuthu, BL Research Bureau | Updated on May 20, 2020

The rupee (INR) commenced today’s session marginally higher against the dollar (USD) as it has opened at 75.57 versus yesterday’s close of 75.64. Yesterday, the local currency faced resistance at 75.6.

If the local currency can rally and sustain above 75.6, it can witness considerable buying, taking the exchange rate of USDINR to 75.4 – a resistance for the rupee. A breakout of that level can take it to 75.15. On the contrary, if the rupee weakens from current level, 75.8 can act as a support. Below that level, is the critical support of 76.

Yesterday, INR gained nearly 0.4 per cent against USD despite selling by the Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI). The net outflows on Tuesday was ₹1,328 crore (equity and debt combined).

Dollar index

The dollar index softened yesterday, and it is now trading below 21- and 50-day moving averages. But the index continues to remain within the important levels of 98.8 and 101. It should breach either of these levels to confirm the next leg of trend.

Trade strategy

The rupee is hovering around the resistance at 75.6 and it can be bearish until it trades below that level. Hence, for intraday, traders can initiate fresh short positions in rupee with a tight stop-loss.

Supports: 75.8 and 76

Resistances: 75.6 and 75.4

Published on May 20, 2020

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