Technical Analysis

Sell rupee with stop-loss at 75.7

Akhil Nallamuthu, BL Research Bureau | Updated on March 24, 2020 Published on March 24, 2020

The rupee (INR) has opened higher today against the dollar (USD). The local currency has opened at 76.09 versus its previous close of 76.29. It is currently testing an important level of 76.

Yesterday, the local currency lost nearly 1.5 per cent against the greenback. With that, the year-to-date loss as per yesterday’s close stands at about 6.9 per cent. After recording a lifetime low of 76.32, it closed yesterday’s session at 76.29. Further decline could drag the rupee to 76.5, below which it could even drop to 77. On the other hand, if the rupee rises, it will face hurdle at 76 and 75.7

The Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI) were sellers on Monday too. The total tally of net outflow for the current month is now ₹1,02,411 crore (equity and debt combined), according to the latest data by National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL). Year-to-date, FPIs have net sold ₹92,484 crore. The rupee will face considerable downward pressure if the FPIs continue to sell.

Dollar index:

The dollar index moderated yesterday and closed at 102.1 versus its previous close of 102.8. The bulls seem to have taken a pause as the index continue to soften in today’s session. It has slipped below 102 and the nearest support is at 101. A softening dollar demand can be favourable for the domestic currency.

Trade strategy:

The rupee has opened with a gain today. But as long as it trades below 75.7 it can be bearish, and the intermittent rallies could face selling pressure. Hence, one can continue to hold bearish view on the domestic unit until it trades below 75.7. Traders can sell rupee with stop-loss at 75.7

Supports: 76.3 and 76.5

Resistances: 76 and 75.7

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Published on March 24, 2020
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