Technical Analysis

Stay away from lead futures until key trends emerge

Akhil Nallamuthu | | Updated on: Nov 30, 2021
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Lead futures: Trend remains uncertain

The price of lead, which has been gaining gradually since March, is now facing a slowdown. Consequently, the continuous futures of lead on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) is now oscillating in a sideways trend i.e., between ₹182 and ₹194. Thus, unless either of these levels is breached, the next level of trend cannot be confirmed.

Indicating a lack of trend, the contract is trading around the 21- and 50-day moving averages (DMAs). Also, the RSI and the MACD are hovering in the neutral region. So, traders are advised to stay on the sidelines until either ₹182 or ₹194 is breached.

A breakout of ₹194 can turn the outlook positive. Since the trend prior to consolidation has been up, a breakout can result in a good build-up of positive momentum. This can lift the contract above the critical level of ₹200, potentially to ₹210. Therefore, traders can consider longs if ₹194 is breached. Initially, a stop-loss can be placed at ₹186 and revised the same to ₹194 if the contract moves above ₹200. Exit the positions when the contract touches ₹210.

But in case if the contract breaks below ₹182, the short-term trend can turn bearish. The nearest support below ₹182 is the price band of ₹173-₹175. Subsequent support is at ₹167. Hence, one can consider selling the contract if the price falls below ₹182. Initial stop-loss can be at ₹188 and shift it to ₹182 if the contract declines below ₹173. Liquidate the shorts at ₹167.

Published on November 30, 2021

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