Your Stock Portfolio: Siemens tests a key support

Here are answers to readers’ queries on the performance of their stock holdings.

I hold shares of Siemens purchased at ₹350 and Taj GVK at ₹140. What is the outlook for these shares?

M Yunus

Siemens (₹998.9): Ever since registering an all-time high at ₹1,558 in August 2015, the stock of Siemens has been on an intermediate-term downtrend.

In November, the stock conclusively breached its moving average compression at ₹1,300 and continued to decline.

After testing the key support at ₹1,150 in December, the stock decisively breached this level in early January 2016.

Last week, the stock fell 5.7 per cent, dragging its monthly loss to 16.8 per cent. Nevertheless, the stock has found support at around ₹1,000 and tests it now. Moreover, this support also coincides with the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of the stock’s prior uptrend and a psychological support.

An upward reversal from this support level can take the stock to ₹1,100 and ₹1,150 in the short to medium term.

But to accelerate the uptrend, the stock has to essentially break through ₹1,150 levels. Subsequent long-term targets or resistances will be ₹1,250 and ₹1,400 levels.

Conversely, if the stock conclusively breaks the support at ₹1,000 and declines, the long-term uptrend will be under threat.

In that scenario, the stock can decline to ₹850 or even to ₹800. Investors with a long-term perspective can make use of such decline for buying the stock with a stop-loss at ₹770.

Taj GVK Hotels & Resorts (₹88.2): The stock's up move from the August 2015 low of ₹62 has failed to emphatically move past the key barrier at ₹105 in January 2016. It started to decline, breaking supports at ₹100 and then ₹95.

However, the stock found base at ₹80 last week and rebound strongly, gaining 7.7 per cent on Friday.

Investors with a long-term horizon can buy the stock on declines with a stop-loss at ₹73.

Break-out of the immediate resistances at ₹95 and ₹105 will strengthen to the stock's uptrend. Next targets are ₹117 and ₹130 levels.

Having said that, envisaging a move beyond ₹130 will be tough as the stock could face difficulty in climbing above ₹130. So you can consider taking partial profits at this level.

I bought Rolta India shares at ₹103 per share. What are the prospects for the next one year?

Mahipal Madasu

Parthsarthi Sara

Rolta India (₹83.7): The stock of Rolta India has been on a long-term downtrend since encountering a key resistance at ₹196 in February 2015.

The medium as well as short-term trends are also down. Last week, the stock tumbled 6.5 per cent, decisively breaking a key support at ₹90. This fall has strengthened the long-term downtrend. The stock has key supports at ₹80 and ₹70 levels. It can reverse higher from these supports.

You can consider averaging at lower levels after witnessing reversal with a stop-loss at ₹65. Failure to hold the crucial level of ₹65 can intensify the downtrend and drag the stock down to ₹50 in the medium term.

A decisive rally above ₹90 can take the stock up to the ₹100-105 range. Further breakout of this barrier will push the stock higher to ₹118 and ₹125 in the medium term.

To alter the long-term downtrend, the stock needs to move past the key resistance level at ₹140 for an upside target of ₹155 and ₹180.

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