Motorcycle sales have fallen for the fourth successive month this fiscal and it now remains to be seen if 2014-15 will see an overall drop in numbers. This is happening even as scooters are growing from strength to strength and fuelling two-wheeler growth.

Data released by the Society of Automobile Manufacturers earlier this week shows that while bike sales fell by 5.85 per cent to 8.68 lakh units in January, the cumulative figure for the nine months is up 4.34 per cent from 8.7 million units in 2013-14 to 9.1 million units this fiscal. For the moment, there is nothing to suggest that things could improve during this month or March as farm incomes in rural India continue to be under pressure.

Falling numbers

“These are big markets for entry-level 100cc commuter motorcycles (HF, Platina, CD etc) and if customers are not queuing up, it becomes a problem for a whole lot of us,” says a top marketing executive of a two-wheeler major. Apart from poor rains in some parts of the country, falling prices of food products like wheat have also hit disposable incomes. Bike sales were up in August and September by 15 per cent and 20 per cent respectively before the fall started in October which saw an eight per cent slump. November and December posted a drop of 3-4 per cent apiece while this has continued into January 2015.

Manufacturers are hopeful that a turnaround will happen soon even as scooter sales continue to soar with January posting a 25.3 per cent jump at 4.04 lakh units. For the nine months of this fiscal, their numbers have grown by 27.42 per cent to 3.7 (2.93) million units.

Scooting along

As pressure on public transport increases, a growing number of students and professionals are opting for scooters. While women account for a larger percentage of this buyer base, men are going in for sporty bikes which explains the good showing of brands like the Pulsar, FZ and, more recently, the Gixxer which has been a shot in the arm for Suzuki.

SIAM data shows that scooters now account for a third of total two-wheelers sold and this component will only increase by mid-2016 when Honda is scheduled to commission its Gujarat plant. With an annual capacity of 1.2 million scooters, it will further strengthen the company’s almost invincible status in this product segment. For the moment, its nearest rivals are TVS and Hero whose combined sales are barely half of Honda’s monthly output of 22 lakh units.

Will all this result in relegating motorcycles to the sidelines while scooters take charge in the coming years? The converse happened in the late-1990s when the traditional geared scooter lost out to bikes and eventually resulted in Hero taking the leader’s mantle from Bajaj. Ironically, the latter has decided to steer clear of scooters and is completely focused on the global bike arena.

Bike domination

Motorcycles will continue to dominate the Indian landscape even as scooters are surging ahead. We are not likely to see an ASEAN-like scenario here where scooters rule the roost,” says the marketing executive. In his view, bikes still offer benefits of power and mileage along with a host of features which make them more attractive as an option.

Motorcycles will also become the preferred alternative for riders as road connectivity improves across every nook and corner of the country. They are better options for long distance travel and this will mean that India will still be a bike-dominated market at least for the reminder of this decade.

Whether scooters will take over thereafter is a million dollar question.

For the moment though, the bigger concern is the rural market which is a critical commuter bike buyer base. While the fall in recent months could be a blip on the horizon, there is a sense of anxiety on how long this will last.

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