Punjab elections: Whom to vote?

Fear and anger seem to be ruling the hearts in the hinterlands of Punjab. As the state known for its agrarian economy heads for elections later this year, the mood among its farmers is grim, post the demonetisation drive.

With the deadline of 50 days — set by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to get over the pains of the note ban — now over, farmers question the future.

“Things have only gone from bad to worse. We were hoping that with time the government would be able to increase the cash flow. We were waiting to sell our produce, but the price of our produce, especially perishable goods such as potatoes, cauliflower, peas and others are just falling. We have been delaying spending on our household needs, even on treatments,” said Balwinder Singh, of Samrala.

Prices for vegetables have fallen to levels where farmers now don’t see the point in spending money in transporting the produce to the nearest market.

“Can’t you feel the anger?” asks one farmer, who has a cumulative loan of ₹18 lakh — taken for farming as well as for the education of his son. “Neither the Centre nor the State cares about us. Every patch of land that you see here is mortgaged. We have loans to pay, most of what we earn goes into repaying the loan and buying seeds, fertilisers and pesticides for the next season. Now, with demonetisation, we don’t have the money to buy these things for the next season,” said Parminder Singh of Pal Majra village.

Changing equation Parminder Singh expects the ruling SAD-BJP government to face the music in the upcoming State elections, the dates for which are yet to be announced. But not everyone agrees.

The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) has a strong support base in the State, despite its alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Anger against the ruling BJP in the Centre may not necessarily translate into a loss for the Akali Dal in all pockets.

Historically, Akali Dal and the Congress have been the two dominant parties in the state. Memories of Operation Blue Star and the anti-Sikh riots following the assassination of Indira Gandhi in 1984, continue to sway votes in the politics of Sikh identity. That might explain the continuing support for the Akali Dal despite some disillusionment.

Apart from that, the political landscape of Punjab is dominated by interpersonal relationships. The people of Sangrur district, which reported one of the highest incidence of farmer suicides, continue to vote on the basis of who they know, with contestants from their ' pind ' getting support almost by default.

The dark horse Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), appeared to have broken that streak in 2014. The district voted for AAP contestant Bhagwant Mann in the General Elections — as a reaction to the alleged corruption of the state machinery. However, the public perception seems to have changed again, and the AAP will have to tweak its strategy to get back its popularity.

Tanveer Singh, a paddy farmer has seen the price of his high quality basmati rice fall by half, is certain the BJP would be wiped out in the elections. But he doesn’t dismiss BJP’s ally in the State after it tried its best to woo some marginalised sections with sops such as free electricity.

The opposition also doesn’t seem to have made the most of the public discontent. The Congress has failed to regain trust and the newcomer, AAP, is yet to field contenders that connect with the people.

In a State where politics and personal relationships often go hand-in-hand, fear rules. Surinder Singh, a prominent local in Samrala, said: ”Even being seen with political workers from an opposition party raises suspicions here. I was threatened a few days back by members of the Akali Dal because I was seen with a Congress supporter. You will never get the real picture in Punjab. No one will tell you who they will vote for, or who they support.”

Despite dissatisfaction with the ruling SAD, owing to factors such as their alleged involvement in the drug trade, corruption and now even its relationship with BJP — issues which hit very close home — many rue the lack of options.

Parminder Singh brings up the analogy of the devil and the deep sea, “Where should we go? It is really a choice between the bad and the worse. That is where the elections would head.”

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