The World Steel Association (WSA) has predicted a rebound in India's steel consumption in 2012, after a sluggish offtake in 2011.
“India is expected to resume its high growth trend in 2012. Steel use is forecast to grow 6.9 per cent to reach 72.5 million tonnes,” WSA said in its latest short range outlook. “In 2013, the growth rate is forecast to accelerate to 9.4 per cent on the back of urbanisation and surging infrastructure investment,” it said.
Global scenario
The WSA has forecast that global steel use will increase by 3.6 per cent to 1.422 billion tonnes in 2012, following a 5.6 per cent growth in 2011. In 2013, it is forecast that world steel demand will grow further by 4.5 per cent to around 1.486 mt.
“Despite the market weakening in the fourth quarter of 2011, world steel demand achieved solid growth of 5.6 per cent in 2011 due to the recovery momentum seen in the first half of the year. Though we saw a series of negative events in 2011 (including Japan's earthquake, political turmoil in MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries and flooding in Thailand), their impact proved to be contained mostly locally,” said Mr Hans Juergen Kerkhoff, Chairman of the Worldsteel Economics Committee, in a statement.
China economy
“The possibility of a hard landing for the Chinese economy cannot be ignored but at this point we do not attach high probability to this. It should be noted that the most important development in our revised forecast is the continuing slowdown of Chinese steel demand driven by the Chinese government's efforts to restructure the economy,” Mr Kerkhoff said.
China's apparent steel use in 2012 is expected to increase by 4 per cent to 648.8 mt following 6.2 per cent growth in 2011.