Would nature too do a ‘double dip' act on US?

Vinson Kurian Updated - September 05, 2011 at 11:38 PM.

It is not often that economy and weather watchers see eye to eye on matters straddling each other's sphere of activity.

One does not go farther than India Meteorological Department (IMD) whose predictions are at best blown to pieces by a flare of the weather-beaten economists' nostrils or at worst don't get into the latter's scheme of things.

‘DIFFERENTLY' US

Not entirely without reason, given the none-too-spectacular history that the country's official forecaster can boast with respect to crucial weather forecasts.

But things are happening differently in the US, where a combination of economic and atmospheric factors has lead many to wonder if the economy is ‘dying' to mimic nature, or vice versa.

The fact is that they're both exhibiting patterns very similar to those seen in 2008, says Dr Tony Barnston, Chief Forecaster, International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University.

‘Double dip' is the operative word, if one were to go by the actual expression of the sentiment.

DOUBLE DIPS

A double-dip recession is in the air for the larger US economy as many an economist have warned, while there's a ‘double dip' La Nina in the making over the east equatorial Pacific. Both of 2008 vintage if only one cared to look back and ruminate.

Just as a double-dip recession can take the wind out of the sails of the economy, a double-dip La Nina can exacerbate weather patterns in the US and beyond.

Collateral damage to the economy from increased Atlantic hurricane activity and volatile weather from tornados over land are a possibility.

AFRICAN CRISIS

On August 4, the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services issued a La Nina Watch. But the International Research Institute's forecast is slightly more conservative.

Should it occur, a double dip La Nina can worsen the current humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa (east Africa), says a worried Dr Barnston.

That is because the region's short rain season, which runs from October to December, is negatively influenced by La Nina. If the rains were to fail, it would be the third failed season in a row for the region.

Published on September 5, 2011 18:08