After the Arabian Sea storm started rebuilding ending a brief pause, weather models have started re-plotting charts for the likely track for a developing tropical cyclone.
At least five leading models, including early projections by India Met Department, indicate that the cyclone might veer towards northwest Gujarat and adjoining Sindh coast in Pakistan for a landfall.
The Canadian Meteorological Centre subscribes to this view saying that the system would take a turn to the east over northeast Arabian Sea, but without suggesting an exact area of landfall.
The 21-member ensemble from the Global Forecast Model is more forthcoming, suggesting northwest Gujarat to be the area of landfall.
The UK Met model is the most forthright among all, with projected growth of the system as a very severe cyclone (wind speeds ranging between 177- 209 km/hr) and heading for northwest Gujarat.
The shift in cyclone track will take place under the influence of a western disturbance moving across the Arabian Gulf and towards Afghanistan, Pakistan and northwest India.
Westerly notified
India Met has said in its evening bulletin on Friday that a western disturbance would start affecting the western Himalayan region from October 28. Being computer-simulated models, these projections can change over time. This makes it imperative that the evolving weather system is tracked on a real-time basis, say experts.
Available indications indicate that it can grow to considerable strength. The month of October is known for vulnerability of the peninsular seas to these types of ‘disturbances’ from change in meteorological conditions associated with the monsoon transition.
Heavy rains
Meanwhile on Friday, heavy rains continued to lash parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which are the two States with excess rainfall thus far during this northeast monsoon season.
Tamil Nadu falls in the rainfall excess category (+32 per cent) while Kerala followed (+18 per cent, ‘normal’ category).
Coastal and south interior Karnataka will start receiving meaningful showers as easterly flows from the Bay of Bengal head across the peninsula to feed the building cyclone in the Arabian Sea.