‘Chapala’ racing away to become Arabian Sea’s second super cyclone

Cyclone ‘Chapala’ is racing away across the Arabian Sea to become a super cyclone, only the second in the basin after ‘Gonu’ of 2007.

It has been undergoing rapid intensification, upgrading itself from a conventional cyclone to a severe cyclone, a very severe cyclone and an extremely severe cyclone – all during the course of the day on Friday.

Chapala’s rate of intensification from a high-end tropical storm to a high-end Category 4 storm in 24 hours is quite ‘impressive,’ according to storm watchers.

The destructive storm has attained a category-4 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale of storm intensity. Category-5 is the class-topping one, equivalent to a super cyclone.

‘Chapala’ would attain super cyclone status tonight with devastating wind speeds of 220-230 km/hr and gusting to 250 km/hr, which will be next only to Gonu’s peak wind speed of 240 km/hr.

It is forecast to wind down a round as an extremely severe cyclonic storm when it makes a landfall on North Yemen and adjoining Oman coast by midnight on Monday, the India Met Department said.

Cyclones are rare in the Arabian Sea – and their severest versions even more so – when compared to the Bay of Bengal.

These are most likely to form during two periods: from May through June and October through November, which are monsoon transition periods.

The mid and late summer period is not favourable, thanks to increased wind shear (change in wind speed and direction with height) during the South-West monsoon that runs from June to September.

Meanwhile, the would-be super cyclone Chapala has had a ‘stifling’ impact on a concurrent North-East monsoon as the winds increasingly failed traction and direction in its wake.

A remnant cyclonic circulation over Sri Lanka has thrown up a helpful offshore trough along the Tamil Nadu coast on Friday, which can bring about rain over the region.

The trough will feature a likely low-pressure area at the other end – off the Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal coast – which will push some rain into those areas as well during the weekend.

The Met has forecast heavy rain at isolated places over coastal Tamil Nadu, Kerala, south interior Karnataka, coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep during the next four to five days.

The North-East monsoon is only days into circulation, and has not made much impression on the weather. Super cyclone Chapala may have upset its best-laid plans for making a splash to announce its arrival on the Tamil Nadu coast.